US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019
 
Valid Sunday September 08 2019 - Thursday September 12 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern 
Plains, Mon-Tue, Sep 9-Sep 10and Thu, Sep 12.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio 
Valley, Sun, Sep 8.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern 
Plains, Sun-Mon, Sep 8-Sep 9.
- Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Wed-Thu, Sep 11-Sep 12.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Sunday-Thursday) will feature upper-level troughs in the western U.S. and 
upper-level ridging in the Southeast. This will lead to multiple chances for heavy rain across the 
north-central U.S. The first area at risk of heavy rain will be across the Midwest on Sunday to the 
north of a stationary front. Another system is forecast to enter the Northern Plains by Monday and 
could bring 1 to 2 inches of rain from North Dakota to the western Great Lakes. This same area 
could see another round of heavy rain on Thursday as another system ejects out of the western U.S. 
trough. Confidence in heavy rain has decreased across Montana on Monday, therefore the heavy rain 
area was removed from yesterday's graphic. The Southwest, specifically southern Arizona and New 
Mexico, could also see scattered showers and heavy rain during this forecast period, but confidence 
is low at this point.  

Upper-level ridging across the Western and Central Gulf Coast States will result in above normal 
and potentially record-breaking temperatures across much of the Deep South Sunday and Monday. The 
highest maximum temperature anomalies (around 10 to 15 degrees above normal), will be centered from 
roughly far eastern Texas to southern Alabama/western Florida. High temperatures across these areas 
will reach the upper 90s and low 100s, which could break several daily high temperature records. 
Humidity will bring heat indices up to around 105-110F, which is enough to warrant an excessive 
heat area. Maximum heat indices are forecast to drop below 105F after Monday, but high temperatures 
will still remain in the mid-90s. 

In Alaska, an active weather pattern will enter the southern half of the state by Tuesday. This 
will bring wind and scattered showers to the Aleutian Islands, with heavier rain likely across 
southern mainland Alaska by Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall totals could exceed 2 inches in 24 
hours, prompting a heavy rain area on the hazards graphic. 

Snell