US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
 
Valid Monday September 16 2019 - Friday September 20 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across northwestern Oregon, Wed, Sep 18.
- Flooding possible across portions of the northern and central Plains, the Great Lakes, and the 
upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the northern and central Plains, as well as the 
upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the northern and central Plains, as well as the upper 
Mississippi Valley.
- Much above normal temperatures across much of the northern Plains into portions of the northern 
Rockies, central Plains, and into the upper Midwest, Mon-Tue, Sep 16-Sep 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of northern California, southern Oregon, into 
northwestern Nevada, Mon-Tue, Sep 16-Sep 17.
- Heavy rain across the central Aleutians, Tue, Sep 17.
- Heavy rain across much of southwestern Alaska, Wed, Sep 18.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle into southern Alaska, Wed-Thu, Sep 18-Sep 19.
 
Detailed Summary:

Much attention has been focused on the forecast track and intensity of Potential Tropical Cyclone 
Nine for the past couple of days as global models indicate the southeastern U.S. could be impacted 
by this cyclone during the medium-range period.  Over the past 24 hours, global models have 
continued the previous trend of tracking the cyclone further and further toward the east and 
northeast.  This means that the core of the cyclone could stay off the coast of the southeast U.S. 
into the medium-range period.  Even the GFS, which has been maintaining a northwesterly storm 
track, is now joining the rest of the guidance in tracking the cyclone east of the Florida 
Peninsula, albeit still very close to the coast.  If this eastward trend continues, it is entirely 
possible that the southeast U.S. will see little to no impacts from this cyclone.  This is 
reflected on the WPC hazards map with no areas of heavy rain indicated over the Southeast.

Elsewhere in the U.S., anomalous upper-level ridging is forecast to build across the northern 
Plains into the Upper Midwest early next week where maximum temperatures anomalies are expected to 
reach 10 to 20 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday.  Actual high temperatures are forecast to 
range from the upper 80s across the central Plains to low 80s across the Upper Great Lakes, with 
low temperatures ranging from the low 60s to low 70s.  Meanwhile, a sharp cold front associated 
with a deepening upper trough is forecast to traverse the western U.S. early to the middle of next 
week.  Temperatures will drop drastically behind the front and could result in scattered 
frost/freeze for portions of Oregon, Nevada and northern California, where an area of much below 
average temperatures is indicated on the hazards map.  In fact, some snow flakes are possible over 
the high elevations of Idaho and northwestern Wyoming early on Tuesday.  In addition, heavy rain is 
possible in parts of western Oregon ahead of the cold front on Wednesday.

In Alaska, an active and wet pattern is expected during the medium-range period.  Although a fair 
amount of uncertainty exists, a fast-moving occluded cyclone is forecast to bring heavy rain across 
the central Aleutians on Tuesday where 3 inches of rain is possible.  By Wednesday, the cyclone 
could bring up to a couple of inches of rain into southwestern Alaska, before spreading more heavy 
rain into southern Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle next Thursday.

Kong