US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019
 
Valid Thursday October 03 2019 - Monday October 07 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, 
Thu-Fri, Oct 3-Oct 4.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Great Lakes, Thu, Oct 3.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi 
Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 
Great Lakes.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central 
Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the 
Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Thu, Oct 3.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern 
Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Fri, Oct 3-Oct 4.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central/Northern Rockies and the 
Central/Northern Plains, Thu, Oct 3.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Oct 
5-Oct 7.
 
Detailed Summary:

In the medium range period (Thu Oct 3 - Mon Oct 7), the upper-level pattern is expected to become 
somewhat less amplified after anomalous ridging in the East and troughing in the West in the short 
range. On Thu, the trough and the ridge will lead to below average temperatures in the West and 
above average temperatures in the East, respectively. While minimum temperatures will only be 
around 10 degrees below average in the Northern Plains on Thu, some locations there are expected to 
see their first freeze this week. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be persistently cooler than 
average in the northwestern U.S. through the weekend. In the East, warm temperatures should 
continue into Thursday for the Southeast northward into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, with 
record-breaking warmth again possible. By Friday, a front should press southeastward, confining the 
heat to the Southeast.

Lingering moisture in the Southwest to Southern Plains could lead to heavy rainfall on Thu in and 
around New Mexico, which will be wet in the short range as well. Heavy rain is also possible in the 
northeastern U.S. along and north of a front stretching eastward ahead of a surface low for the end 
of the workweek. Toward the weekend, another frontal system is likely to develop in the central 
U.S. and move eastward into the Ohio Valley ahead of an upper-level trough. This could lead to some 
heavy rainfall for the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley this weekend and into the Lower 
Great Lakes region. However, at this time model guidance is not in good agreement with amounts and 
placement of the precipitation due to uncertainties in the upper-level flow and frontal placement 
at the surface. This precluded us from delineating a Heavy Rainfall hazard area today, but one may 
be needed in the future. 

In Alaska, a low pressure system is forecast to track eastward toward the Seward and Lisburne 
Peninsulas on Fri, which could lead to gusty winds, but possibly below hazards criteria. By the 
beginning of next week, another low is expected to move through the Gulf of Alaska near the 
southern coast and the Panhandle, which will increase chances for heavy precipitation there. 
Precipitation should generally remain rain along the coast and snow in higher elevations. 


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