US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EDT Wed Oct 02 2019
 
Valid Saturday October 05 2019 - Wednesday October 09 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Upper 
Mississippi Valley, Sat, Oct 5.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi 
Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 
Great Lakes.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, 
the Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Sat, Oct 5.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Oct 
5-Oct 6.
 
Detailed Summary:

A pattern change for most of the CONUS will be well underway at the start of the medium range 
period (Saturday, October 5) as a strong cold front will usher in cooler temperatures for the 
eastern states. One final day of well above normal temperatures on Saturday will be confined to the 
Southeast (west of central Georgia) and Lower Mississippi Valley. High temperatures here are 
forecast to reach into the middle 90s, which equates to around 10 to 15 degrees above average. 
Temperatures will be much cooler across the Northeast, with highs in the 50s and 60s and lows in 
the 30s and 40s on Saturday. In the West, temperatures will moderate, but remain slightly below 
normal across the northern half of the region throughout the period. 

A system entering the Great Plains on Saturday will bring the chance of locally heavy rain to the 
Corn Belt back to the Central Plains as a warm front lifts northeastward. Total rainfall amounts 
are expected to add up to around 1 to 2 inches and across portions of Iowa that have seen double 
their normal rainfall over the last month. After Saturday, the front will continue eastward and 
bring modest to locally heavy rain from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast, but timing/placement 
uncertainty precluded a focused hazard area. Best chance for heavier rain on Sunday and Monday will 
be over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into the Appalachians. By Tuesday the threat for heavy rain 
shifts into the Northeast, but again uncertainty led to excluding a highlighted area on today's 
hazards chart. On top of the forecast challenges, these areas have been very dry as of late and 
could actually use the rain.

In Alaska, an incoming area of low pressure is forecast to track through the Bering Strait on 
Saturday which could lead to gusty winds, but possibly below hazards criteria. Attendant cold front 
will push through the Gulf with a triple point low redeveloping, which will increase chances for 
heavy precipitation across southeastern mainland Alaska and the Alaskan Panhandle on Saturday and 
Sunday. Precipitation should generally remain rain along the coast and snow in higher elevations. 
Another system is forecast to move out of eastern Russia (with embedded remnants of tropical storm 
Mitag) toward the Bering Strait again by next Tuesday, bringing some wind and rain to the coastal 
areas, but left off the outlook chart for now given the detail uncertainty.

Snell