US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Thu Oct 03 2019
 
Valid Sunday October 06 2019 - Thursday October 10 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern 
Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Thu, Oct 10.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the 
Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Oct 6-Oct 7.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi 
Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 
Great Lakes.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun, Oct 6.
 
Detailed Summary:

Autumn will sweep in as a strong cold front supported by amplified upper trough passage ushers in 
cooler temperatures from the central to eastern U.S. Widespread local downpours will accompany the 
front from the Tennessee Valley through the Appalachians to the Northeast, but heavy rainfall and 
runoff threats will be limited by system progression and dry anticedent conditions.

Another well organized frontal system supported by an amplified and progressive upper trough slated 
to reach the Plains in about a week offers better than average predictability for these longer time 
frames. This system would offer a chance of renewed lead moisture inflow to fuel development of 
some locally heavy rains from the south-central Plains to the Midwest.

A Gulf of Alaska low pressure system will increase chances for heavy precipitation including 
elevation snows across the Alaskan Panhandle Sunday into Monday. A second main system is forecast 
to track eastward through the Bering Sea to western Alaska through early to mid next week (with 
embedded remnants of tropical storm Mitag). This is expected to support some gusty winds and 
wrapping moisture/rains, but possibly below hazards criteria.

Schichtel