US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019
 
Valid Saturday October 19 2019 - Wednesday October 23 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, 
Sat-Wed, Oct 19-Oct 23.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northern Plains, Sun-Mon, Oct 20-Oct 21.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern 
Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Sat-Sun, Oct 19-Oct 20.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley,  the Ohio Valley, and the 
Tennessee Valley, Mon-Tue, Oct 21-Oct 22.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Tue-Wed, Oct 22-Oct 23.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Northern/Central Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, 
Sat-Sun, Oct 19-Oct 20.
- Severe weather across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, and the Middle/Lower Mississippi 
Valley Sun, Oct 20.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Middle 
Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Northern Plains.
- High winds across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Plains, and the Central Great 
Basin, Sat-Sun, Oct 19-Oct 20.
- High winds across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, and the Upper/Middle Mississippi 
Valley, Sun-Mon, Oct 20-Oct 21.
- High winds across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sun-Wed, Oct 
20-Oct 23.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Oct 
22-Oct 23.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Wed, Oct 23.
 
Detailed Summary:

A area of low pressure and associated front over the North-Central Gulf of Mexico will move 
northeastward from parts of the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast across the Southeast to the Southern 
Mid-Atlantic by Monday.  The system will produce an area of heavy rain over parts of the 
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast into parts of the Tennessee Valley/Southeast on Saturday into Sunday.  

Low pressure and associated front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Saturday moving 
inland to parts of the Northern/Central Plains by Sunday.  The system will produce an area of heavy 
snow over parts of the Northern Rockies on Saturday into Sunday.   Additionally, with high pressure 
over the Central/Southern Rockies and the storm moving inland across the Northern/Central Rockies 
and a new area of high pressure building over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern 
California/Great Basin, an area of high winds will develop on Saturday into Sunday over parts of 
the Great Basin into the Central Rockies.  Also from Saturday into Wednesday, moist air from the 
Pacific will flow onshore over the Pacific Northwest producing an area of heavy precipitation over 
the Cascades with some of the precipitation being in the form of snow at times and rain at times. 

As the area of low pressure moves northeastward from the Northern/Central Plains into Western 
Ontario, Canada/Lake Superior by Tuesday, one area of high winds will develop over parts of the 
Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday and a second 
area of high winds over parts of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley also on Sunday into 
Monday.  In addition, the system will produce a small area of heavy rain over parts of the Northern 
Plains also on Sunday into Monday.  Furthermore, an area of severe weather will develop over parts 
of the Southern/Central Plains and parts of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley a long and ahead of 
the associated front on Sunday.  As the area of low pressure moves into Canada, the associated 
front will move across the Northeast on Tuesday into Wednesday.  Moisture will pool along the front 
over the Northeast producing an area of heavy rain over the Northeast on Tuesday into Wednesday.  

Over Alaska, low pressure over the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula will move eastward into the 
Gulf of Alaska by Monday.  A second area of low pressure over the North Pacific will move eastward 
into the Alaska Peninsula forming a deep area of low pressure.  There is some uncertainty 
associated with the timing and location of the storm.  There is an area of high winds depicted on 
the hazards map near Kodiak Island on Wednesday.  The timing and location of the area of high winds 
is uncertain but fairly confident that there will be an area of high winds somewhere around the 
Alaska Peninsula, Aleutians, and the Alaska mainland on Tuesday into Wednesday.  Likewise, there 
will be an area of heavy precipitation associated with the storm and the earlier storm over the 
Alaska Panhandle but how much the heavy precipitation extends along the Alaska mainland or into 
parts of the Peninsula or Aleutians is in question.  We are fairly confident that there will be 
heavy precipitation over parts of the Alaska Panhandle some time on Tuesday into Wednesday. 

Ziegenfelder