US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019
 
Valid Monday October 21 2019 - Friday October 25 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the 
Tennessee Valley, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Great Basin, the Middle Mississippi Valley, 
the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Oct 
21-Oct 22.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the 
Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Thu-Fri, Oct 
24-Oct 25.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast and the Lower Great Lakes, Tue-Wed, Oct 22-Oct 23.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies, Wed-Thu, Oct 23-Oct 24.
- Severe weather across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee 
Valley, Mon, Oct 21.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi 
Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Northern Plains.
- High winds across portions of the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern 
Plains, Tue-Thu, Oct 22-Oct 24.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Wed-Fri, Oct 
23-Oct 25.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Wed-Thu, Oct 23-Oct 24.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Fri, Oct 25.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Wed-Fri, 
Oct 23-Oct 25.
 
Detailed Summary:

A front extending from the center of a deep area of low pressure, over the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, roughly southward over the Mississippi Valley to parts of the Western Gulf Coast will 
trigger an area of severe weather on Monday.  In addition, moisture pooling along the boundary will 
aid in producing an area of heavy rain from parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys southwestward to 
the Central Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday into Tuesday morning.  

A front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest, on Monday, moving 
inland to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday.  Moist flow off the Pacific will also move 
onshore on Monday producing an area of heavy rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast through 
Tuesday morning.  Additionally on Wednesday into Thursday, an area of upper-level energy will move 
over the Northern Rockies.  With lingering moisture in the area, the energy will produce an area of 
heavy snow over parts of the Northern Rockies on Wednesday into Thursday.  

An area of deep low pressure will move into South-Central Canada Tuesday into Wednesday.  The 
system will produce an area of high winds over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great 
Lakes, likewise, on Tuesday into Wednesday.  The storms associated front extending from the Great 
Lakes to the Eastern Gulf Coast will move eastward into New England and off most of the other 
locations on the Eastern Seaboard by Wednesday.  An area of low pressure will develop along the 
boundary over New England that may be parts of Post Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN or just a wave of low 
pressure.  Moisture pooling a long the front and additional moisture flowing northward off the 
Western Atlantic will aid in producing an area of heavy rain over parts of the Northeast on Tuesday 
into Wednesday.      

Over Alaska, low pressure over the Western Pacific will move northeastward to near the Alaska 
Peninsula by Wednesday absorbing other areas of low pressure over the region. The storm will 
produce an area of heavy precipitation from Kodiak Island eastward to the most of the Alaska 
Panhandle on Wednesday into Friday, leaving the southern most part of the peninsula dry.  The storm 
will also produce an area of high winds and significant waves over the Eastern Aleutian 
Islands/Alaska Peninsula to Kodiak Island on Wednesday into Thursday, with the waves extending into 
Friday.  On Friday another deep area of low pressure will develop over the Western Aleutian Islands 
producing an other area of high winds and significant waves over the region.

Ziegenfelder