US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2019
 
Valid Saturday November 09 2019 - Wednesday November 13 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northeast, Tue, Nov 12.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Western Gulf Coast, Mon, Nov 11.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Upper Great Lakes, Mon, Nov 11.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower 
Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Northern Plains.
- Much below normal temperatures across much of the Central and Eastern U.S., Mon-Wed, Nov 11-Nov 
13.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Sat, Nov 9.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of northern Alaska, Sun-Tue, Nov 10-Nov 12.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (spanning Sat, Nov 9 to Wed, Nov 13) begins with a leading cold air mass 
exiting the East Coast this weekend. This will bring a chance for much below normal temperatures 
(averages 10 to 15 degrees below normal) to portions of the East on Saturday, before moderating 
back closer to normal by Sunday and Monday. A few record lows may be possible across the 
Mid-Atlantic so an much below normal temperatures area was included for the I-95 corridor region 
from North Carolina to New York. By Sunday into Monday, another arctic air mass surges southward 
and expands across much of the Central and Eastern states by the middle of next week. The center of 
the surface high pressure, and core of the anomalously cold air mass, should track from the 
Northern High Plains Monday, into the Central U.S. by Tuesday, and eventually into the East by 
Wednesday. For simplicity reasons, one large much below normal temperatures area was drawn for much 
of the country east of the Rockies from Monday to Wednesday next week. This airmass could bring 
widespread record low daytime temperatures for especially the Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley 
eastward to the Northeast. 

A clipper type of system across the Great Lakes will result in periods of potentially moderate to 
heavy lake effect snows. The best chance for this should be downwind of parts of Lakes Superior and 
northern Lake Michigan on Monday, so a heavy snow area was maintained in this region. Farther 
south, moisture return out of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the arctic front may result in heavy 
rainfall along much of the Western Gulf Coast from South Texas to Louisiana. In the Northeast, 
models continue to show the potential for low pressure to track up the East Coast Tuesday-Wednesday 
next week. Uncertainty is high regarding specifics and proximity to the coast and the resulting 
extent of associated wintry precipitation across the Northeast. Despite this, guidance does support 
a threat for heavy precipitation (rain or snow) across eastern portions of New England. 

For Alaska, much above average temperatures are expected to spread across the Northern Slope region 
by next Sunday. Along the south coast of Alaska, it appears that a series of fronts and low 
pressure systems will bring sustained precipitation into the area through the medium-range period. 
However, uncertainty remains high regarding the intensity of individual systems, and the resulting 
rainfall amounts. Another cyclone could deliver increasing winds and precipitation into the 
Aleutians from early to middle of next week, but again the uncertainty is too high to specify any 
hazard areas at this time.

Santorelli