US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EST Fri Nov 08 2019
 
Valid Monday November 11 2019 - Friday November 15 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy snow across portions of the Upper Great Lakes, Mon, Nov 11.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast and the Lower Great Lakes, Mon-Tue, Nov 11-Nov 12.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Northern 
Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Northern Plains.
- Much below normal temperatures across much of the Great Plains to East Coast, Tue-Thu, Nov 12-Nov 
14.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies, 
Mon, Nov 11.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Nov 12-Nov 13.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of northern Alaska, Mon-Wed, Nov 11-Nov 13.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Tue-Wed, 
Nov 12-Nov 13.
 
Detailed Summary:

An air mass with arctic origins will surge southward into the Northern Rockies/High Plains to begin 
the medium range period (Monday, Nov 11), and steadily progress south and eastward through 
mid-week. This will result in a period of much below normal temperatures for many east of the 
Rockies, with several record low mins and maxes forecast next Monday-Wednesday from roughly the 
Great Plains to the East Coast. Passage of the leading cold front may also bring a period of gusty 
winds from the High Plains to the western Gulf Coast early in the period, but wind speeds/gusts at 
this point do not appear to meet criteria for a high wind area on the hazard chart. Locally heavy 
rainfall is also possible along the western Gulf Coast in combination with an approaching upper 
level system to the west, though it's not expected to be widespread enough to warrant a heavy rain 
hazard on the chart today.

West-northwest cold flow over the still relatively warm lake water temps behind the above mentioned 
cold front will also bring potentially moderate to heavy lake effect snows downwind of the Great 
Lakes Monday-Tuesday. A surface low tracking from the Ohio Valley and up the Northeast coast Monday 
and Tuesday next week will likely bring heavy snows to parts of the interior Northeast/northern New 
England as well.

For Alaska, much above average temperatures are expected to continue across the Northern Slope 
region through at least the first half of the medium range period. For southern regions, an initial 
surface low moving through the Gulf of Alaska early next week will promote rainfall across the 
Panhandle region, though amounts may not reach criteria for a heavy rainfall area. Across the 
Aleutians/western Peninsula region, the guidance continues to show the approach of a deep cyclone 
which could deliver a period of high winds and waves to portions of the Panhandle region.

Santorelli