US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EST Fri Feb 07 2020
 
Valid Monday February 10 2020 - Friday February 14 2020
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the 
Southwest, Tue-Wed, Feb 11-Feb 12.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Southwest, Mon-Tue, Feb 10-Feb 11.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the 
Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, 
between Mon-Tue, Feb 10-Feb 11 and Wed-Thu, Feb 12-Feb 13.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, 
and the Southwest, Mon-Tue, Feb 10-Feb 11.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Appalachians, the Northern Plains, the 
Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the 
Pacific Northwest, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Rockies, Mon-Tue, Feb 10-Feb 11.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon, Feb 10.
 
Detailed Summary:

The first half of next week will feature a slow advancing frontal boundary across the southern US. 
Southerly flow carrying Gulf of Mexico moisture will intersect the front which combined with 
increasing vertical motion aloft will lead to heavy showers and thunderstorms from the Lower 
Mississippi Valley to the southern Appalachians and Carolinas. Rainfall rates could be high enough 
that, due to recent heavy rainfall, may cause additional flooding concerns in these areas. As this 
frontal system exits, an upper-level trough in the Southwest will move east into the Southern 
Plains mid-week. This system will tap into both subtropical Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture 
sources which will once again be aimed at a large portion of the South. The potential for heavy 
rain and thunderstorms will extend from central Texas across the Deep South and into the Carolinas. 
Additional heavy precipitation following such a wet few weeks, in particular across the Mid-South 
and southern Appalachians, could exacerbate the flood threat in these areas Wednesday and Thursday.

The aforementioned upper-level trough may produce hazards of its own in the Southwest both Monday 
and Tuesday. A combination of heavy snow or rain will fall in the higher elevations of Arizona and 
New Mexico. The Colorado Rockies and portions of north-central New Mexico have the best odds of 
heavy snow. There is the potential for portions of southern California to also receive heavy 
mountain snow or rain, but confidence was lower in the issuance of potential hazards due to 
discrepancies in precipitation amounts from different global models. Further north, frigid 
temperatures will be common in south-central Wyoming where daily temperature anomalies of 15 to 20 
degrees below normal are possible.

Across Alaska, a frontal system tapping into a moisture source with origins stemming from the 
subtropical East Pacific will stream north and east towards the Panhandle on Monday. This will lead 
to the development of heavy rain and mountain snow across the region. It is possible some lingering 
rainfall continues into Tuesday. By Wednesday and Thursday, a North Pacific storm system will reach 
the Aleutians producing scattered heavy showers and gusty winds. Confidence in this system 
producing notable weather hazards across the Aleutians is low at this time. 

Mullinax