US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2020
 
Valid Sunday March 22 2020 - Thursday March 26 2020
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, 
and the Tennessee Valley, Sun, Mar 22.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the 
Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and 
the Ohio Valley, Tue-Wed, Mar 24-Mar 25.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Mon, Mar 22-Mar 23.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Sun-Wed, 
Mar 22-Mar 25.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, 
and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Wed, Mar 23-Mar 25.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 
Southern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern 
Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Southern Plains.
- Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 22-Mar 23.
- Heavy snow across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Mar 23-Mar 24.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Wed, Mar 22-Mar 25.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium-range period (Sunday 3/22 to Thursday 3/26) will be a wet one due to a pair of upper 
level disturbances tracking across the eastern half of the CONUS. The first will track along a 
frontal boundary stationed over the Gulf Coast states. Showers and thunderstorms will produce 
locally heavy rainfall from the Southern Plains to the Southeast. The heaviest totals are likely to 
take place in the Deep South where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is forecast and locally higher totals 
are also possible. The upper-level feature is then expected to generate an area of low pressure off 
the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday leading to heavy rain. There is still a range of outcomes when it 
comes to not only rainfall totals along and east of I-95, but also precipitation type. Some 
guidance suggests the potential for heavy snow across the interior Northeast and New England, but 
how much is dependent upon storm track, atmospheric thermal profiles, and time in which the 
snowfall occurs. This leads to a lower confidence forecast in whether or not totals do reach 
hazardous criteria. The jet stream pattern both upstream and down stream also suggest this system 
would be progressive, so have opted not to highlight a heavy snow or heavy precipitation area in 
the interior Northeast at this time.

Across the western U.S., a persistent upper-level trough and multiple impulses of upper-level 
energy will lead to cooler than average temperatures and chances for precipitation. The most 
impactful weather will be found across the Sierra Nevada, where another round of heavy snow 
(measured in feet) is increasingly likely starting Sunday and lasting into the first half of next 
week. The potential for heavy snow is increasing across the northern and central Rockies by 
mid-week.

Active weather will be found across northern Alaska during the medium range period. Multiple waves 
of low pressure are forecast to lead to heavy snow (greater than 12 inches) across eastern and 
central portions of the Brooks Range and southern sections of the Lisburne Peninsula. Snowfall will 
also be common across central Alaska with heavy snowfall possible along the Alaska Range. 
Temperatures are forecast to run 20 to 40 degrees above average across northern Alaska through 
Wednesday, which could mean the first time at or above freezing since Autumn for some portions of 
the state.

Mullinax