US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 419 PM EDT Thu Jun 04 2020 Valid Sunday June 07 2020 - Thursday June 11 2020 Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Sun-Mon, Jun 7-Jun 8. - Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Tue-Wed, Jun 9-Jun 10. - Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Wed, Jun 10. - Severe weather across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Sun, Jun 7. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and the Great Lakes. - Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Central Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains, Sun-Mon, Jun 7-Jun 8. - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Sun, Jun 7. Detailed Summary: The medium-range period (Sun Jun 7 - Thurs Jun 11) includes a threat for severe weather in the Northern Plains on Sunday. In addition, a very cool air-mass looks to engulf much of the West. Some of the higher elevations of the northern Rockies picking up measurable snow with locally heavy amounts possible both Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile the southern Rockies and central High Plains are at risk for an enhanced wildfire risk on Sunday due to brisk winds and very low humidity, and hot conditions. Speaking of the heat, parts of the Central Plains and Midwest will witness sweltering temperatures as heat indices surpass the century mark. The period, however, is headlined by Cristobal as it makes landfall over the central Gulf Coast sometime land Sunday or early Monday. Heavy rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible in the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday and into Monday. Rainfall totals could range between 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts. Even as far east as Florida, tropical moisture originating out of the western Caribbean is forecast to reach the Sunshine State. How much of the state deals with the potential for excessive rainfall could be determined by storm track and the southward progression of a cold front off the East Coast early next week. Rainfall totals in southern and central Florida could also range between 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. As Cristobal heads north around mid-week, a deep upper level trough over the Northwest will aid in the development of a jet streak across the North Central U.S. and southern Canada. The steady stream of moisture on the eastern flank of Cristobal may then interact with the frontal boundary over the Northern Plains that ushered in the cooler than normal temperature regime in the West. This could set the stage for a predecessor rain event from the Dakotas to the Upper Midwest ahead of Cristobal. Several inches of rain could fall across the regions with excessive rainfall rates possible. The amount of rainfall stretching from the Mississippi Delta on up to the far reaches of the Upper Midwest could lead to additional river flooding that persists into late next week. Eventually, the remnant moisture from Cristobal and the frontal boundary over the Great Lakes mid-week will push east with the threat for heavy rainfall reaching the East Coast states by days 7-8, but totals and which areas are most heavily impacted are lower in confidence at this time. Over Alaska, much warmer than normal temperatures across the northwestern part of the state with the potential for near threshold warmth over the northern-most regions. However, ice jam flooding remains a concern over the North Slope as rivers have yet to break up and minor snowmelt flooding is a possibility in south-central parts of the mainland. terrain-influenced/enhanced precipitation is expected to linger across southern Alaska, where wet snow is possible for the higher elevations. Precipitation amounts are not expected to be heavy. Fire potential remains low to moderate in southern Alaska due to the rain, but increased thunderstorm potential, particularly north of the Alaska Range, along thermal troughs running through mainland Alaska compounded by favorable fuels could produce a number of starts. Mullinax