US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 425 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Valid Monday June 08 2020 - Friday June 12 2020 Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Jun 8-Jun 9. - Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Wed-Thu, Jun 10-Jun 11. - Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Rockies. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, and the Great Lakes. - Flooding likely across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon-Tue, Jun 8-Jun 9. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Mon, Jun 8. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Tue-Wed, Jun 9-Jun 10. - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Central Plains and the Southern Plains, Mon, Jun 8. Detailed Summary: The medium-range period (Mon Jun 8 - Fri Jun 12) is headlined by Cristobal as it makes landfall over the central Gulf Coast sometime late Sunday or early Monday. Heavy rain and potential strong-to-severe thunderstorms will accompany Cristobal into the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday and into Monday. Rainfall totals could range between 2-5 inches with locally higher amounts. Excessive rainfall and flash flooding is a good bet, especially in parts of the region where soil moisture remains overly saturated. Some flooding could be significant and life threatening in localized areas. In addition to the rainfall, tropical storm force wind gusts could cause problems in parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley in addition to any lingering coastal flooding along the central Gulf Coast. As Cristobal heads north around mid-week, a deep upper level trough over the Northwest will aid in the development of a jet streak across the North Central U.S. and southern Canada. The steady stream of moisture on the eastern flank of Cristobal may then interact with the frontal boundary over the Northern Plains that ushered in the cooler than normal temperature regime in the West. This could set the stage for a predecessor rain event from the Dakotas to the Upper Midwest ahead of Cristobal. Several inches of rain could fall across the regions with excessive rainfall rates possible. The amount of rainfall stretching from the Mississippi Delta on up to the far reaches of the Upper Midwest could lead to additional river flooding that persists into late next week. Remnant moisture from Cristobal and the will push east with the threat for heavy rainfall reaching the southern Appalachians late week where the threat for flash flooding could take shape. Even parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could witness heavy rainfall totals by week's end, but totals and which areas are most heavily impacted are lower in confidence at this time. Temperature-wise, the period looks to be a hot one some with much of the abnormal warmth front centered on Monday and Tuesday. The Midwest can expect heat indices ranging between 90-100 degrees on Monday with locally hotter conditions possible. The same 90s heat index regime will stick around the Great Lakes both Monday and Tuesday before advancing into northern New England mid-week. A cooler air-mass will arrive first in the Midwest on Wednesday and work its way into the Great Lakes the second half of the week. Farther south, The Lone Star State also will contend with very hot conditions. Heat indices in south-central Texas will surpass the century mark on Monday with the hottest conditions arriving on Tuesday. High temperatures in the Rio Grande Valley could soar as high as 110 degrees. Central and eastern Texas can expect an oppressively humid air-mass that combined with high temps in the triple digits, will make for heat indices reaching a sizzling 105-115 degrees. A cold front will usher in a more seasonally warm air-mass the second half of the week. Over Alaska, much warmer than normal temperatures look to continue across the northwestern part of the state with the potential for near threshold warmth over the northern-most regions. However, ice jam flooding remains a concern over the North Slope as rivers have yet to break up and minor snowmelt flooding is a possibility in south-central parts of the mainland. Terrain-influenced/enhanced precipitation is also expected to linger across southern Alaska, where wet snow is possible for the higher elevations. Precipitation amounts are not expected to be excessive through the period. Fire potential remains low to moderate in southern Alaska due to the rain, but increased thunderstorm potential, particularly north of the Alaska Range, along thermal troughs running through mainland Alaska compounded by favorable fuels could produce a number of starts. Mullinax