US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2020
 
Valid Sunday June 14 2020 - Thursday June 18 2020
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern/Central Appalachians, the Carolinas, and the 
Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Wed, Jun 14-Jun 17.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the 
Northern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, 
the Southeast, and the Great Lakes.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central/Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains and the Northern Plains, 
Sun-Thu, Jun 14-Jun 18.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central/Northern Plains, the Middle/Upper 
Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, Tue-Thu, Jun 16-Jun 18.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Central Plains and the Southern Plains, Sun, Jun 14.
 
Detailed Summary:

An amplified upper-level pattern is expected in the medium range period (Sun 6/14 to Thu 6/18), 
with a couple of rounds of upper troughing in the West, an upper-level low meandering over the 
East, and ridging in between. Underneath the eastern upper low, moisture inflow over a stalled 
front along the Atlantic Coast should bring multiple days of rainfall to portions of the Carolinas 
into the Mid-Atlantic states. There is still uncertainty with the details of the placement and 
magnitude of the heaviest rain, but a flash flooding and flooding threat can be expected somewhere 
in those areas next week, especially if the rain falls in areas that have received much above 
normal rainfall lately. Southern Florida could also see some moderate to locally heavy rain as 
tropical moisture persists there.

Underneath the upper-level ridging in the central U.S., high temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above 
normal will take hold across the Central Plains throughout the period. The much above average 
temperatures are forecast to spread northeastward into the Midwest closer to midweek, and the 
interior Northeast could see warm temperatures Wed/Thu as well. Over 100 degree heat in the Desert 
Southwest is forecast, which is right around normal for this time of year. The Northwest should 
remain cooler than average for the first half of the week.

Some rain and thunderstorms are possible in the northwestern and north-central U.S. as a couple of 
fronts move through with upper-level support. At this point, precipitation amounts look to remain 
light to modest and likely enhanced by the Cascades and Northern Rockies, with potential for light 
snow at the highest peaks. The potential for severe weather should continue to be monitored 
especially over the Northern Plains.

No hazards are delineated over Alaska. There are a couple of rounds of precipitation possible over 
portions of the mainland during the period, and some potential for rain along the Alaska Peninsula 
around Wed/Thu, but no notable widespread rainfall. However, some scattered thunderstorms are 
possible, and even though they should be wet thunderstorms, very dry fuels over the Yukon Flats 
(eastern Interior Alaska) means that fires could be sparked by lightning there. Portions of that 
area could warm up to over 80 degrees as well, which could mean lower relative humidities. Warmer 
than average temperatures are also possible for the western mainland, but highs should remain in 
the 70s or below. The Panhandle can expect cooler than average temperatures.


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