US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
436 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020
 
Valid Monday July 13 2020 - Friday July 17 2020
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Mon-Tue, Jul 
13-Jul 14.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Mon, Jul 13.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern 
Plains, Mon-Tue, Jul 13-Jul 14.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower 
Mississippi Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Tue-Thu, Jul 14-Jul 16.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Central 
Appalachians, Thu-Fri, Jul 16-Jul 17.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Monday, July 13 - Friday, July 17) will continue to feature a summer-like 
pattern with expanding heat and isolated opportunities for heavy rain. On Monday, a closed 
upper-level low over central Canada will spawn heavy rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains and 
Upper Midwest. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible. Models seem to persist in signaling around 
an inch of rain for the eastern Dakotas, much of Minnesota and parts of northwestern Wisconsin. An 
area of high pressure over the Southwest and into Texas will produce potentially record breaking 
heat for the Desert Southwest, southern/eastern Texas and much of the Lower Mississippi Valley. 
Heat indices continue to suggest temps over 110 degrees with some isolated places breaching 115 
degrees. Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona are forecast to tie or break their daily record high 
temperature on Monday.

The southern ridge will shrink on Tuesday, leading to a bit of a reprieve for the Southwest. 
Despite that, excessive heat is expected to continue for eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi 
Valley while expanding up into the Middle Mississippi Valley. To the North, the Upper low will 
continue its trajectory across central Canada while the northern stream flattens and becomes zonal. 
This should bring an end to the heavy rain threat over the Upper Midwest. On Wednesday, the bubble 
high will shrink even further as it moves east into eastern Texas. The excessive heat area will 
continue across much of the Lower and Middle Mississippi valley while ending for Texas and most of 
Louisiana. Night time lows are likely to be in the 70s and 80s across much of Texas through 
Wednesday night, so be prepared for warm evenings next week. On Thursday, the excessive heat area 
will continue over the Mississippi Valley but a new area has been added for much of the 
Mid-Atlantic, as the area of high pressure begins to expand across the Tennessee Valley and into 
the East. The area of high pressure will expand further into the east on Friday, and heat indices 
will continue to be over 105 degrees for a second day in a row as a result. This will continue the 
threat of Excessive heat for the Mid-Atlantic. 

No widespread weather hazards are expected across Alaska between Sunday and Friday. Temperatures 
are expected to remain below average with chances of rain and high elevation snow showers. An area 
of low pressure could reach the western Aleutian Islands by Wednesday, behind a receding ridge, but 
impacts seem relatively minor at this time.

Kebede