US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EST Mon Mar 08 2021
 
Valid Thursday March 11 2021 - Monday March 15 2021
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of central to southern Plains, the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley, 
the Tennessee Valley, and into parts of the Ohio Valley, Thu-Sun, Mar 11-Mar 14.
- Heavy snow across portions of the central High Plains to the Front Range of Colorado, as well as 
along the San Juan Mountains of Colorado into northern New Mexico, Fri-Sat, Mar 12-Mar 13.
- Severe weather possible across portions of the central to southern Plains, Fri-Sun, Mar 12-Mar 14.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the lower Mississippi Valley, 
and the Ohio Valley.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the southern High Plains, Thu, Mar 11.
- High winds possible for the western portions of the Aleutians, Sat, Mar 13.
 
Detailed Summary:

The main focus for hazardous weather during the medium range period (Thursday, March 11th - Monday, 
March 15th) will be across the mid-section of the country where a frontal system is forecast to 
become nearly stationary later this week.  Warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be 
lifted along the front to result in a multi-day heavy rain event extending from the central Plains 
to the Mid-Mississippi Valley beginning by about Thursday.  Meanwhile, an upper-level low is 
forecast to move through the Southwest towards the stationary front across the Plains through the 
weekend.  The increasingly vigorous dynamics ahead of the upper low will raise the possibility of 
severe weather in addition to the heavy rain threat over the central to southern Plains beginning 
on Thursday and continuing through the weekend.  Models have not yet come into good agreement on 
how strong the system will become later in the weekend and beyond over the Plains.  But current 
indications are that cyclogenesis is expected over the central Plains and would lead to an 
increasing chance for heavy snow to impact areas from the Front Range into the central High Plains 
as well as the higher elevations of southwest Colorado into northern New Mexico Friday into 
Saturday.

Meanwhile ahead of this developing low pressure system, much milder than normal conditions will 
overspread the northeastern portion of the country later next week before a cold front brings down 
colder air from eastern Canada by the weekend.  In contrast, daytime temperatures will be much 
colder than normal across the central High Plains due to the potential snow event in the forecast.

In Alaska, a cold high pressure system under upper-level northwesterly flow behind an upper trough 
will keep temperatures much below normal for southwestern Alaska into late this week.  A low 
pressure system moving towards the Alaska Panhandle should bring heavy snow to the mountains of the 
southern Panhandle while mixed rain and snow is forecast for the lower elevations.  Farther west, 
another deep low pressure system is expected to track north into the Bering Sea during the weekend, 
bringing the likelihood of high winds across the western Aleutians on Saturday.  As this system 
continues to edge eastward, blizzard conditions are forecast to impact the western portion of 
mainland Alaska on Sunday with snow and blowing snow under gusty south to southeasterly winds.  A 
warming trend is forecast for the North Slope of Alaska later in the weekend into early next week 
but the warmth is not expected to be hazardous at this time.

Kong