US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021
 
Valid Sunday March 14 2021 - Thursday March 18 2021
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle/Upper Mississippi 
Valley, Sun, Mar 14.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Tennessee/Ohio Valley, the Great 
Lakes and the Middle Mississippi Valley, Sun, Mar 14.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Wed-Thu, Mar 17-Mar 18.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Appalachians and the Tennessee Valley, Sun-Mon, Mar 
14-Mar 15.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Northern/Central Plains, and the 
Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley, Sun, Mar 14.
- Severe weather across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi 
Valley, Sun, Mar 14.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the 
Tennessee/Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and the 
Tennessee/Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Southern Plains, Sun, Mar 14.
 
Detailed Summary:

The main area of concern during the medium range period (Sunday, March 14th - Thursday, March 18th) 
will be across the central CONUS, where an upper-level low and quasi-stationary front are forecast 
to generate multiple sensible weather hazards. A winter storm is likely to begin over the Central 
Rockies late on Friday as the low-level wave develops on the lee-side of the Rockies. A well 
defined mid-latitude cyclone will form on Saturday and go on to produce strong winds and several 
inches of snow across the I-25 corridor from the Denver area up through southeastern Wyoming. 
Blowing snow will likely be an issue for this area. This heavy snow threat will continue into parts 
of Nebraska and South Dakota on Sunday as the system progresses eastward. Heavy precipitation is 
expected for northwestern Kansas into southern Nebraska and Iowa where rain early on will likely 
changeover to snow as cold air pours in on the backside of the system. Meanwhile, heavy rain and 
severe weather are expected from the eastern Central/Southern Plains and into the Middle/Lower 
Mississippi Valley on Sunday. Fire weather is possible over parts of western Texas and southeastern 
New Mexico on Sunday as, according to the Storm Prediction Center, undisturbed fuels and dry/windy 
conditions will contribute to the increased probabilities for fires. Heavy rain may spread into the 
Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians by Monday. Another weaker system will follow in behind 
the previous one and bring the potential for another round of heavy rainfall to parts of the 
Southeast through mid-week.

Moderate rain and snow will impact Alaska's southern coast and panhandle through the beginning of 
the week, although model confidence isn't high regarding aerial coverage and magnitude of 
precipitation at the moment.

Kebede