US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021
 
Valid Thursday May 13 2021 - Monday May 17 2021
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the central and southern Plains, Mon, May 17.
- Flooding possible across portions of eastern Texas to the Louisiana border, eastern Kansas, as 
well as northern Ohio.
 
Detailed Summary:

Much of the medium-range forecast period (Thursday, May 13th through Monday, May 17th) should be 
mostly hazards free across the mainland U.S. and Alaska before the threat of active weather emerges 
over the central and southern Plains, as well as across the western Aleutians, by next Monday.  A 
large area of high pressure underneath a positively-tilted trough will prevail across the central 
and eastern U.S., providing mostly benign weather to much of the area for the latter half of this 
week.  Nevertheless, showers initially over the Southeast should continue to move out into the 
Atlantic behind a departing frontal wave off the east coast of Florida.  Some precipitation is 
expected to develop over the central Plains ahead of a frontal wave later this week.  There could 
be areas of heavy rain in this area especially by the weekend as the next upper-level trough 
approaches from the Pacific Northwest.  Widespread heavy rain is not expected however.  By next 
Monday, model consensus indicates that the upper trough should be exiting the Rockies into the 
Plains.  It is by that time that the threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms is expected to expand 
eastward across the central and southern Plains as an elongated low pressure system begins to 
develop over the High Plains.

For Alaska, much of the area should remain hazards free later this week into the weekend.  A 
weakening occluded low should bring moderate precipitation across the Alaska Panhandle on Saturday. 
 By next Monday, models and ensembles indicate that the next threat of a bigger storm could move 
into the western Aleutians.  However, current forecast uncertainty precludes specification of any 
hazard areas at this time.

Kong