US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Thu Jun 03 2021
 
Valid Sunday June 06 2021 - Thursday June 10 2021
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Sun-Tue, Jun 
6-Jun 8.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Southern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and 
the Northern Great Basin.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes, the Great Basin, and the Upper 
Mississippi Valley, Basin, Sun-Tue, Jun 6-Jun 8.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Central Great 
Basin, the Northern/Central Rockies, the Northern Great Basin, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, 
Sun-Thu, Jun 6-Jun 10.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the 
Northeast, and the Central Appalachians, Sun-Wed, Jun 6-Jun 9.
 
Detailed Summary:

A weak upper-level low over Texas and a weak front extend across the Central/Western Gulf Coast 
through Wednesday in the medium-range forecast period. The circulation around the upper-level low 
will pull moisture northward off the Gulf of Mexico.  The energy will produce showers and 
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley.  The rain will be 
heavy enough to depict an area of heavy rain on the Hazards Chart from Sunday into Tuesday.  The 
heavy rain will have the greatest areal coverage on Sunday over Southeastern Texas and Louisiana.  
The heavy rain will move into northeastern Texas and parts of Arkansas on Monday, with a much 
smaller area over eastern Texas on Tuesday.  Moisture will continue to stream northward over the 
Plains/Mississippi Valley and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.  With the lack of a definable boundary 
over the area, it will be hard to pinpoint where the heavy rain will be on Wednesday and Thursday.  
The models are also very uncertain where the heavy rain will be, too. 

An upper-level ridge will extend over parts of the western part of the country to the Northeast. 
The upper-level ridging will last the longest over the parts of the Rockies and Plains into parts 
of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Thursday.  The upper-level ridging will aid in producing 
above normal temperatures over the region.  Much above normal temperatures will be over parts of 
the Great Basin from Sunday through Tuesday when upper-level troughing will move over the area.  
Over the Northeast, the much above normal temperatures will last from Sunday into Tuesday.  On 
Tuesday, weak upper-level troughing will move over the Northeast.   The Central/Northern Rockies 
area into the Northern Plains will have much above normal temperatures, the longest from Sunday 
into Thursday. 

Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient offshore from Northern/Central California will produce strong 
wind offshore from Sunday into Tuesday.  The wind speed will not meet the criteria for an area of 
high wind.  However, boaters are encouraged to check with the local forecast office for any marine 
advisories.

For Alaska, low pressure over the Bering Sea on Sunday will steam moisture into parts of the 
adjacent mainland.  The rain will not be heavy enough for an area of heavy rain to be depicted on 
the Hazards Chart.  Furthermore, an area of low pressure will develop over the Gulf of Alaska on 
Tuesday into Wednesday.  The models are uncertain about the location and timing of heavy rain over 
parts of the Kenai Peninsula and adjacent regions.  Therefore, an area of heavy rain was not placed 
over the region on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be likely that some heavy rain will develop over 
the region, but the location and timing are uncertain at this point in time. 

Ziegenfelder