US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Tue Jun 08 2021
 
Valid Friday June 11 2021 - Tuesday June 15 2021
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the Central 
Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Fri, Jun 11.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern 
Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Fri, Jun 11.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, 
the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great 
Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southwest, Sat-Tue, Jun 12-Jun 15.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, 
and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Fri, Jun 11.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range forecast period (Friday, June 11 to Tuesday, June 15) will feature a building 
upper-level ridge over the Rockies and High Plains, with upper-level troughs expected over the 
Eastern U.S. and Pacific Northwest. As a result, this weather pattern is forecast to focus much of 
the precipitation along the East Coast, Southeast, and Gulf Coast. The greatest probabilities of 
widespread heavy rain is found on Friday across the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Appalachians. 
A back door cold front, as well as a weak and slow-moving upper-level low, will focus showers and 
repeating rounds of thunderstorms over the region. Total precipitable water amounts as high as 2 
inches will also lead to the possibility of intense rainfall rates within scattered thunderstorms. 
This cold front and associated moisture is expected to sink southward on Saturday and Sunday, which 
will shift thunderstorm chances into the Southeast and central/eastern Gulf Coast States for the 
weekend. Temperatures during this time frame are expected to remain around average to slightly 
below average along the East Coast and Southeast. 

The main weather story over the central and western United States during the medium range period 
will be associated with excessive heat and much above average temperatures. Starting with Friday, 
the ongoing heat wave over the Upper Midwest is expected to linger and shift slightly south by the 
end of the week. High temperatures are forecast to reach 10 to 15 degrees above average over parts 
of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa, with highs in the low-to-mid 90s and low temperatures 
potentially only dropping into the low 70s. Meanwhile, excessive heat is possible from southwest 
Oklahoma, through West Texas, and into portions of eastern New Mexico on Friday. Here, high 
temperatures are likely to break the century mark while heat indices approach 110 degrees. 

By this weekend, much of the above average temperatures shift west along with the aforementioned 
upper-level ridge. Heat will begin to build across much of the central/northern Rockies, Northern 
Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. The center of the highest temperature anomalies (15 to 20 
degrees above average) are currently forecast over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on 
Monday and Tuesday of next week. Widespread temperatures in the 90s are expected, with triple 
digits not out of the question over central and eastern Montana. The Intermountain West will also 
see scorching heat beginning on Saturday and lingering through next week. Places such as Salt Lake 
City, Utah could experience multiple days with high temperatures close to 100 degrees. An Excessive 
Heat area was considered over the Northern High Plains and Intermountain West, but current 
forecasts fall just under criteria. Not to be outdone, the Desert Southwest will also likely see 
its fair share of heat, which will undoubtedly increase the already exceptional drought concerns 
over the region. With high temperatures between 110 and 115 degrees possible by Tuesday, an upgrade 
to an Excessive Heat area may be needed during the next forecast update.

For Alaska, a potent low pressure system over the Bering Sea may bring gusty winds to the Aleutian 
islands and heavy rain to southwest portions of the state along the Gulf of Alaska late this 
weekend into early next week. However, both of these potential hazards appear to remain below 
threshold. 

Snell