US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021
 
Valid Friday October 01 2021 - Tuesday October 05 2021
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Fri-Sat, Oct 1-Oct 2.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Great Lakes.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Oct 
1-Oct 2.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Oct 1-Oct 2.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon-Tue, Oct 4-Oct 5.
 
Detailed Summary:

The main threats during the medium range period, (Friday, October 1st - Tuesday, October 5th) will 
be over the Southern Plains and the Alaskan coast. A potent low pressure system will bring heavy 
rain to much of central Texas between Thursday and Saturday, where multiple inches of rain is 
forecast. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected out ahead of this system over the Southern 
Plains and into the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley this weekend, with the severe threat remaining 
low. There's good ensemble agreement to this effect with the 00z CMC being the outlier on timing of 
the 500mb trough and qpf through next week. Rainfall will spread into the eastern half of the 
country heading into next week along the upper-level trough. Temperatures will be above normal 
across the Upper Great Lakes this weekend before the cold front sweeps through on Sunday. Highs 
will be in the low 70s on Friday, which is 15-20 degrees above average. A cooler air mass will 
settle in over the Rockies this weekend in the wake of the cold front and the arrival of high 
pressure.

In Alaska, a pair of potent low pressure systems will bring heavy precipitation and high winds to 
parts of the Aleutians and Gulf coast through the medium range. On Friday and Saturday, the first 
system will bring heavy high elevation snow and low elevation rain from the eastern Kenai peninsula 
through the Panhandle. The NBM signaled high wind potential with this system during this period, 
but the threat should be relegated to the Panhandle. High winds are possible along the western 
Kenai peninsula next week out ahead of the next deep low pressure system.

Kebede