US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Mon Oct 04 2021
 
Valid Thursday October 07 2021 - Monday October 11 2021
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the 
Central Appalachians, Thu-Fri, Oct 7-Oct 8.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Sat, Oct 9.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri, Oct 8.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Thu-Sat, Oct 7-Oct 9.
 
Detailed Summary:

The main hazards threats during the medium range period (Thursday, October 7th - Monday, October 
11th) will occur over parts of the eastern CONUS, as well as southern Alaska. A slow moving low 
pressure system, in the short range, will move offshore during the medium range. This slow system 
will produce heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity over parts of the southern and central 
Appalachians on Thursday and Friday. Flash flooding will be a concern, not necessarily because 24 
hour rainfall will exceed our heavy rain threshold for the region, but because of the multi-day 
nature of the event and saturated soil moisture. As this system moves offshore, it is likely to 
generate another round of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for much of the North Carolina coast on 
Friday. Rainfall may spread into the Northeast, along an area of surface troughing extending from 
the low this weekend, but totals should be unimpressive. Meanwhile, another system in the Northern 
Rockies will bring rain and isolated thunderstorms to the region on Thursday and Friday before rain 
spreads into the Great Plains along a cold front this weekend.

A potent low pressure systems will generate high winds and heavy precipitation for most of southern 
Alaska early in the medium range period. High winds will impact the Aleutians from Thursday through 
Saturday as the system makes its way toward the Gulf of Alaska. Heavy precipitation will then occur 
over an area extending from the eastern Kenai into the northern Panhandle on Friday. Precipitation 
amounts should be around 2 inches, particularly over higher altitudes. 

Kebede