US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EST Fri Nov 19 2021
 
Valid Monday November 22 2021 - Friday November 26 2021
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the 
Southern Plains, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Fri, Nov 25-Nov 26.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Mon, Nov 22.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Pacific Northwest.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern 
Plains, Mon, Nov 22.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, 
and the Tennessee Valley, Tue-Wed, Nov 23-Nov 24.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern 
Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Tue-Thu, Nov 23-Nov 25.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Wed-Fri, Nov 
24-Nov 26.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Wed, Nov 22-Nov 24.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Thu-Fri, Nov 25-Nov 
26.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range time frame (Monday, November 22 - Friday, November 26) will feature a few areas of 
active weather, with a majority of the Nation avoiding major weather troubles for Thanksgiving 
week. Starting with the first half of the period, a potent cold front exiting the East Coast will 
usher in gusty winds and below average temperatures. Current guidance displays wind gusts remaining 
below hazardous threshold, but no doubt adding a bite to the forecast colder temperatures. A well 
below average temperature area was expanded across the Southeast for Tuesday through Thursday. 
Frost/freeze concerns may reach as far south as northern Florida through Thursday morning, with 
interior sections of the Southeast potentially experiencing their first hard freeze of the season. 
Bitterly cold temperatures will also be found across portions of North Dakota and Minnesota on 
Monday. A highlighted area was maintained on the hazard chart here due to increasing chances for 
temperatures to drop into the single digits and/or below zero. Below average temperatures will also 
be felt across much of the Ohio Valley and Northeast through Thanksgiving morning, but these 
temperatures are not expected to drop low enough to be cause for concern. Elsewhere, guidance has 
steadily shifted the bulk of the precipitation on Monday to the east of New England. However, there 
still remains the possibility of heavy rain clipping eastern Maine. Rainfall amounts around 1 inch 
are possible. Additionally, another helping of lake-effect snow can be expected downwind of the 
Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday as cold Canadian air spills over the region.

By Thanksgiving, much of the attention will turn towards the south-central U.S. as an upper-level 
tough sets up over the Southwest and a cold front enters the Southern Plains. This expected weather 
pattern would allow for an increasing amount of moisture to stream northward out of the western 
Gulf of Mexico and interact with the approaching frontal boundary, sparking numerous showers and 
thunderstorms. As a result, widespread rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch appear possible from 
central Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley between Thursday and Friday. At the moment, the 
highest confidence for potentially impactful heavy rain and flooding concerns exits across the 
ArkLaTex region. Further west, a continuing wet and snowy pattern is in store for the Northwest and 
Northern Rockies. Current expectations are for precipitation amounts to remain rather light and 
spread out across multiple days. 

For Alaska, an active pattern along the Gulf Coast and Panhandle will produce substantial 
precipitation over the region and significant waves along much of the coast beginning around 
Wednesday. A low pressure system entering the Gulf of Alaska and associated plume of moisture will 
likely produce areas of heavy coastal rain and inland/mountain snow through at least Friday. Liquid 
precipitation amounts greater than 2 inches is possible. Meanwhile, bitter cold and below average 
temperatures will be located across much of the mainland next week. The area with the most 
anomalous cold (20+ degrees below average) will be found across the southwestern portion of the 
state. Here, minimum temperatures could reach near -20F through Wednesday morning.

Snell