US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 PM EST Fri Dec 31 2021
 
Valid Monday January 03 2022 - Friday January 07 2022
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of California, the Central Great Basin, the Pacific 
Northwest, and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Fri, Jan 3-Jan 7.
- Heavy rain across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Mon-Fri, Jan 3-Jan 7.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Wed, Jan 
3-Jan 5.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, 
the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Wed-Fri, Jan 5-Jan 7.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Wed, Jan 5.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central 
Appalachians, Thu-Fri, Jan 6-Jan 7.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio Valley.
- High winds across portions of California, the Central Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the 
Northern Great Basin, Mon, Jan 3.
- High winds across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, 
the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Tue-Thu, Jan 4-Jan 6.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the 
Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, 
Wed-Fri, Jan 5-Jan 7.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Jan 3-Jan 4.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Sun-Wed, Jan 3-Jan 6.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, 
Mon-Fri, Jan 3-Jan 7.
 
Detailed Summary:

The upcoming medium range forecast period (Monday, January 3rd - Friday, January 7th) features 
persistent unsettled weather over the western half of the U.S., and another midweek blast of frigid 
Arctic air east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, portions of the Mid-Atlantic could see a brief period of 
moderate to heavy rainfall and some snow to kick off the work week, before the focus shifts toward 
the Great Lakes and Northeast for winter weather potential. On day 3, a strong closed upper-low 
will descend south from the Gulf of Alaska toward the Pacific Northwest, in turn directing a moist 
Pacific airmass onshore toward the Northwest. With the influx of Pacific moisture next week, expect 
the Pacific Northwest to enter a wet pattern through the medium range, with low elevation heavy 
rain and mixed precipitation in the mountains. Generally rising snow levels associated with a warm 
advection regime overhead presently suggest snow should stay relegated to higher elevations within 
the Cascade and Olympic Ranges. East of the Cascades, shortwave activity emanating from the 
offshore closed low will further spread heavy mountain snows over the Blue, Bitterroot, and 
Absaroka Ranges by day 4. From then on, upslope flow from the arrival a strong cold front should 
support heavy mountain snows through later next week. Precipitation aside, the arrival of a frontal 
system associated with the troughing off the coast should facilitate a period of strong gradient 
winds in the Northwest which relax by day 4. However, strong Arctic high pressure dropping out of 
Central Canada day 4 will facilitate a period of hazardous gusty winds in the Northern and Central 
Rockies which linger through late next week. 

The same high pressure responsible for high winds in the Mountain West will plummet temperatures in 
the Central/High Plains and Midwest to bitterly cold temperatures by midweek. Anomalously cold low 
temperatures 25-30 degrees below normal (even colder in some Northern Plains locations) will surge 
southward behind a strong front by day 7. High temperatures along the Northern Tier could stay well 
below zero for a day or two, with sub-zero lows currently forecast to extend into the Central 
Plains late next week. Residents are encouraged to monitor the latest forecast as these dangerously 
cold temperatures envelop the region. Moreover, the cold northerly flow on the back side of a 
developing frontal system over the Great Lakes could support a period of heavy Upper Michigan 
Peninsula snows by midweek. As the frontal system moves east next week, an amplifying upper-pattern 
with a ready supply of cold air points toward heavy snow potential days 6-7 from the Great Lakes 
through the Northeast, which will be monitored in subsequent forecasts.  

Over Alaska, cold and dry conditions should persist through the medium range period. Strong 
Canadian high pressure settling northeast of Alaska should maintain fairly strong gradient winds 
along the Alaska Panhandle and Peninsula. A blocking high to the north of Alaska should suppress 
the Pacific storm track to keep the mainland largely dry, with any appreciable accumulations 
relegated to the Panhandle.    


Asherman