US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EST Fri Jan 14 2022
 
Valid Monday January 17 2022 - Friday January 21 2022
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northeast, Mon, Jan 17.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Mon, Jan 17.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Wed-Thu, Jan 19-Jan 20.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Pacific 
Northwest, and the Ohio Valley.
- High winds across portions of the Northeast, Mon, Jan 17.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the 
Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, 
Wed-Sat, Jan 19-Jan 20.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Mon, 
Jan 17.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri, Jan 21.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Fri, Jan 21.
 
Detailed Summary:

The start of the medium range period will be headlined by the departing major winter storm that by 
Monday morning will be tracking through the Northeast. Periods of heavy snow are likely across 
northern New England while lingering bands of heavy snow on the storm's western flank may linger in 
parts of Upstate New York and possibly northern Pennsylvania. On the storm's warmer eastern flank, 
a mix of heavy snow and rain is expected from Downeast Maine on south into northern Massachusetts. 
The immediate coastal areas have the best odds of switching over to all rain, but how much the warm 
nose aloft within a roaring 850mb low level jet is will determine how much snow versus sleet/rain 
areas 50 miles farther inland witness. In addition, strong onshore flow is likely to bring 
significant coastal impacts to the Northeast with some lingering effects still possible along the 
Mid-Atlantic coast. Battering waves could lead to beach erosion with the potential for storm surge 
inundation in spots, especially during high tide. Winds along the coast may also gust over 50 knots 
as the storm tracks up the coast. Flooded roads from storm surge and both power outages and tree 
damage are possible.

Across the rest of the Lower 48, the jet stream pattern during the medium range period (Mon. Jan 17 
- Fri. Jan 21) features an amplifying upper level ridge from the Gulf of Alaska to the western 
coast of North America. Meanwhile, a deep upper trough set to anchor itself near Baffin Bay will 
work in tandem with the developing ridge farther west to dislodge Arctic air and direct it south 
towards the United States. This pattern typically means an Arctic blast of frigid air is likely to 
track through the North Central U.S. and across much of the East. Much Below Normal Temperatures 
are expected in the Northern Plains and Midwest where bitterly cold temperatures, as cold as -10 to 
-20 for lows, are forecast with bone chilling wind chills as low as -20 or colder. It is possible 
another Much Below Normal hazards area may be needed in parts of the Great Lakes and/or Northeast 
for the next issuance, but current guidance shows temperatures modifying enough over the Great 
Lakes and being transient enough that anomalies do not plummet enough to meet the required 
thresholds. In addition, the frigid temperatures racing over the Great Lakes will reinvigorate the 
lake effect snow machine with typical downwind locations in the Michigan U.P., western Michigan, 
and just east of Lakes Erie and Ontario picking up locally heavy amounts. 

...Alaska...

The North Pacific jet stream pattern features a deep upper low southwest of the Aleutians and an 
amplifying ridge from the Gulf of Alaska to the western coast of Canada. Some wet and gusty weather 
is possible in the Aleutians through out the first half of the medium range, but impacts appear to 
be below thresholds for the time being. Ensemble guidance does hint at a storm system bringing 
another round of precipitation to the Panhandle and along the south-central coast by Day 7 (Fri. 
Jan 21). In coordination with AR-ROC, have gone ahead and issued a heavy precipitation area and 
high wind hazard from Kodiak and the southern Kenai Peninsula to the Dixon Entrance. Much of the 
mainland can expect a fairly mild pattern while colder conditions set up along the far northern 
coast of Alaska.

Mullinax