US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 318 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022 Valid Monday January 31 2022 - Friday February 04 2022 Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Thu, Feb 2-Feb 3. - Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Mon, Jan 31. - Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Thu, Feb 2-Feb 3. - Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Thu, Feb 2-Feb 3. - High winds across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Plains, and the Northern Plains, Mon, Jan 31. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Wed-Fri, Feb 2-Feb 4. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Fri, Feb 4. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Southeast, Mon, Jan 31. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Thu-Fri, Feb 3-Feb 4. - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon-Thu, Jan 31-Feb 3. - High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon-Wed, Jan 31-Feb 2. Detailed Summary: As January concludes and the calendar flips over to February, there is no loosening of Old Man Winter's grip on the Lower 48. Abnormally cold temperatures will stick around one more day in Florida before warmer temperatures return to kick off February. While the final few days of January conclude on a cold note in the East, the general troughing pattern will pull back to the west, becoming positioned atop the central U.S. As a result, the next intrusion of Arctic air will spill south across parts of the Rockies, the Plains, and throughout much of the Mississippi Valley. Daily temperature departures of 15-20 degrees below normal are expected with locally colder anomalies expected. This Arctic plunge coincides with an upper trough over the western third of the Lower 48, causing warm air advection out ahead of the trough and supporting widespread precipitation development from the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. A cold front racing south through the Nation's Heartland will collide with a developing warm front in the South Central U.S., allowing precipitation to fall as snow from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. Guidance still differs on not just where this front lines up, but also the progression of this first storm system. The GFS is faster overall with less residency time over the Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, the Euro model has a secondary storm system trailing the first one on Groundhog Day, making for an even more impactful storm setup. The "Heavy Precipitation" area delineates where there is spread in ensemble guidance with regards to precipitation type. There is a scenario where cold air rushing south via the Arctic high pressure system over Canada arrives early enough that overrunning aloft leads to an icy wintry mix that reaches farther south. If it is slower, then either the icy wintry mix sets up farther north, or allows for more rain to fall rather than snow. This area features arguably the greatest uncertainty, but may still receive enough liquid precipitation to allow for heavy rain, significant icing, or potentially heavy snow depending on storm track. Farther south, warmer temperatures in the Deep South and a prolonged fetch of Gulf of Mexico moisture will result in a couple areas where heavy rainfall is possible next week. The first is on Monday (Jan. 31) when a cut-off upper low tracking through Texas fosters a favorable environment for developing thunderstorms. The slow progression of the upper low could result in training convection, which combined with precipitable water values exceeding 2 STDs could cause instances of localized flooding in southeast Texas. The second area is associated with the larger synoptic scale system in the Heartland Feb 2-3, with an even broader and deeper fetch of integrated water vapor transport. Recent CIPS Analogs show a bulls-eye of heavy precipitation near the central Gulf Coast, but heavy rainfall totals exceeding an inch could occur farther norther closer to the frontal boundary as well. Heavy rainfall is possible as far east as the Northeast come February 3. It bears watching that a warming trend in the Northeast, combined with periods of heavy rain could lead to cases of flooding due to rapid snow melt. This potential flooding scenario is low confidence at this time due to the amount of snowpack in parts of the Northeast still yet to have accumulated from this weekend's major winter storm. To the north, the last day of January is forecast to be a windy one in parts of the northern Rockies and High Plains. The 00Z Euro EFI for wind gusts indicated values of 0.8-0.9 in eastern Montana for Jan 31 with strong gusts in higher elevations of southern Wyoming. This bears watching as wind gusts of 50 mph or higher are possible in the highlighted area. ...Alaska... Multiple deep low pressure systems will move over the Aleutians from Sunday to Thursday, producing an area of High Winds from Monday to Wednesday as well as Heavy Precipitation from Monday to Thursday. The tight pressure gradient between a strong dome of high pressure north of Alaska and the train of storm systems in the North Pacific may also result in blustery wind gusts along the western coastline for most of the week. By the second half of the week, a redeveloping storm system just off the south central coast ushers in a round heavy mountain snow and valley/coastal rain over the Panhandle to near Yakutat. Abnormally cold temperatures in the eastern mainland appear to remain just below thresholds for a Much Below Normal temperature area for now and may be revisited in future forecasts early next week. Mullinax