US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 327 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022 Valid Thursday February 03 2022 - Monday February 07 2022 Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Fri, Feb 3-Feb 4. - Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Fri, Feb 3-Feb 4. - Freezing rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Fri, Feb 3-Feb 4. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Northern Rockies, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Thu-Fri, Feb 3-Feb 4. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Thu-Mon, Feb 3-Feb 7. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies, Thu, Feb 3. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Fri-Sun, Feb 4-Feb 6. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Thu-Sat, Feb 3-Feb 5. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu, Feb 3. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Fri, Feb 3-Feb 4. Detailed Summary: The medium range time period (Thursday, February 3rd to Monday, February 7th) will start with an ongoing winter storm associated with a sharp cold front bisecting the Nation from the Northeast to the western Gulf Coast, along with areas of low pressure forming along the boundary. A strong high pressure system located over the northern Plains will supply ample and deep cold air behind the cold front, while warm and moist air surges into the boundary from the Gulf of Mexico. This scenario presents the opportunity for all modes of heavy wintry precipitation, as well as heavy rain. Starting with the heavy rain threat, rainfall totals over 2 inches are likely from the central Gulf Coast into much of the Tennessee Valley on Thursday and into early Friday. This could lead to instances of flash flooding where the heaviest rainfall rates occur. Meanwhile, heavy snow is likely to be ongoing from central/southern Missouri to the Lower Great Lakes on Thursday while slowly filtering into the Interior Northeast on Friday. Here, additional snowfall amounts are likely to top 4 inches with maximum amounts near a foot. Light snow is also possible on Thursday across the Southern Plains, but expectations are for light accumulations during this time frame. Just to the south of the heavy snow areas, the cold Canadian airmass will drop surface temperatures below freezing and lead to a transition zone of sleet and freezing rain. The greatest probabilities for impactful freezing rain on Thursday (shifting east with time) extend from northeast Texas to southern New England, including much of Arkansas and the Ohio Valley. For parts of the Ohio Valley in particular, this will likely be a continuation from earlier precipitation and could lead to total ice amounts around 0.50", with locally higher amounts. This can create dangerous travel conditions, as well as the potential for power outages and tree damage. At the moment, the greatest uncertainty is found throughout the Northeast, where forecast guidance still does not have a sure handle of how far south the wintry precipitation will exist. Current ensemble clusters would suggest the heavy snow will remain through northern New England, with freezing rain and sleet eventually shifting into southern New England and parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic for a brief period of time. There remains the possibility that the surface cold air verifies stronger than suggested, which would shift the wintry precipitation threat slightly south. Be sure to check future updates as confidence increases over the next few days. As previously mentioned, the cold arctic high pressure system situated over the north-central U.S. on Thursday will provide well below average temperatures for much of the central United States. At the heart of the cold airmass, low temperatures well below zero and into the minus 20s are forecast across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains on Thursday. The cold air is expected to gradually moderate by the weekend, with the colder anomalies shifting into the Ohio/Mid-Mississippi Valleys and Southern Plains. For Texas, below average temperatures will encompass the entire medium range time period with the coldest days centered between Thursday and Saturday. Widespread lows into the single digits and teens are likely, with 20s and 30s found throughout the southern and southeast sections of the Lone Star State. Luckily, highs should reach well above freezing for much of the Southern Plains by Saturday. Otherwise, the next potential weather system to produce hazardous wintry weather is found along the eastern U.S. by the beginning of next week. A low pressure system has the potential to form and move either inland up the East Coast or just offshore. This would create the possibility of impactful snow and/or freezing rain from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. However, there remains rather high uncertainty at this stage and with several pieces of upper-level energy entering the country it is best to wait for trends to surface before offering any specific details. ...Alaska... An active northern Pacific pattern with troughing over the far western Aleutians and ridging in the Gulf of Alaska will continue to swing potent low pressure systems toward the south-central coast through at least early this weekend. Total liquid precipitation amounts may add up to over 2 inches from near the Prince William Sound to much of the Alaska Panhandle. Meanwhile, gusty winds associated with a barrier jet may lead to wind gusts over 50 mph from the Kenai Peninsula to the Alaska Peninsula on Thursday. Moderate-to-heavy precipitation could linger into Sunday, but rather high uncertainty exists with this scenario at the moment. Elsewhere, gusty easterly winds are also possible along the North Sound region thanks to a strong pressure gradient between low pressure in the Bering Sea and high pressure over the North Slope. Well below average temperatures will start the time frame over portions of the eastern interior, with potential for lows in the minus 30s. Snell