US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EST Tue Feb 01 2022
 
Valid Friday February 04 2022 - Tuesday February 08 2022
 
Hazards:
- Heavy snow from portions of the central Appalachians through central/southern New England and 
southern Maine, Fri-Sat, Feb 4-Feb 5.
- Heavy snow for portions of the northern Cascades, Fri, Feb 4.
- Freezing rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic to the southern New England coast, Fri, Feb 4.
- Flooding possible across portions of southeastern Texas.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the southern Rockies to much of the southern 
Plains, Fri-Sun, Feb 4-Feb 6.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the central and southern Plains, into the lower 
and mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and portions of the southern Rockies, Fri, Feb 4.
- Heavy precipitation across the Alaska Panhandle into the southern coast of Alaska, Fri-Sun, Feb 
4-6.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of interior eastern Alaska, Fri, Feb 4.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range time period will begin on Friday, February 4th with an ongoing widespread and 
anomalous winter storm shifting eastward into the northeastern portion of the country.  A low 
pressure wave, which is forecast to form along a sharp front, is depicted by model guidance to 
reach the vicinity of the central Appalachians by Friday morning.  This position has been trending 
southward in the model runs for past couple of days.  There is a notable difference between the GFS 
and ECMWF solutions in the northern extent of the snow, the western extent of the snow and freezing 
rain over the central Appalachians, and the southern extent of the freezing rain/sleet over the 
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.  It was assumed that the GFS was a little too fast in bringing an arctic 
high pressure system eastward across southeastern Canada resulting in the arctic air being a bit 
too fast surging into the Northeast.  On the other hand, the ECMWF has been trending very gradually 
toward a faster northern stream solution more in line with the GFS.  In addition, the ECMWF 
precipitation axis has been trending gradually southward more so than that of the GFS in recent 
runs.  Therefore, a blended solution of these differences was adopted to come up with the heavy 
snow and freezing rain/sleet areas as depicted on the chart.

Behind this wintry weather event, deterministic model guidance, particularly the GFS, has been 
indicating the potential for another low pressure system to form and track up the East Coast or 
just offshore by Sunday into Monday.  This would create the possibility of impactful snow and/or 
freezing rain from the interior Southeast to New England.  However, there remains a high degree of 
uncertainty with the speed and amplitude of the associated upper-level energy ejecting into the 
southern Plains.  Therefore, no hazard areas have been depicted in these areas for the time being.

Meanwhile, the large dome of arctic air behind the winter storm will gradually moderate with time.  
However, much of the southern Plains will remain in a deep freeze through Saturday morning with 
record low temperatures possible on Friday and Saturday mornings.  Temperatures will become less 
extreme by Sunday as afternoon highs recovering to the 50's and near 60 over southern Texas.  But 
these temperatures are still colder than normal for this time of the year.  The arctic chill across 
the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley as well as the Ohio Valley on Friday should become less 
extreme by Saturday afternoon.  Over the Pacific Northwest, a moisture Pacific air stream is 
forecast to bring some heavy snow mainly over the northern Cascades on Friday.

For Alaska, an active northern Pacific pattern with troughing over the far western Aleutians and a 
longwave ridge over western Canada will continue to swing energetic low pressure systems toward the 
south-central coast through at least early this weekend.  Total liquid precipitation amounts are 
forecast to reach or exceed 2 inches from east of the Prince William Sound to much of the Alaska 
Panhandle.  Meanwhile, gusty winds could impact parts of the Gulf Coast to the Alaska Peninsula 
during the weekend.  Well below average temperatures will continue to moderate and should be 
confined only to portions of interior eastern Alaska by Friday.

Kong