US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 PM EST Wed Feb 02 2022
 
Valid Saturday February 05 2022 - Wednesday February 09 2022
 
Hazards:
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the central/southern Plains, the lower and 
mid-Mississippi Valley, the Midwest, the Ohio Valley, and through much of the interior Northeast, 
Sat-Sun, Feb 5-Feb 6.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the southern Rockies and the southern Plains, 
Sat-Mon, Feb 5-Feb 7.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle into southern coastal Alaska, 
Sat-Wed, Feb 5-Feb 9.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of southern coastal Alaska, Tue-Wed, Feb 8-Feb 9.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range time period will begin on Saturday, February 5th with the departure of a 
widespread winter storm away from the northeastern U.S.  Behind this system, a large dome of arctic 
air will gradually moderate with time.  However, much of the southern Plains will see morning 
temperatures dropping into the single digits and teens with record low temperatures possible on 
Saturday.  Temperatures will recover some on Sunday but morning lows are forecast to drop back into 
the teens and 20s by Monday morning.  Colder than normal temperatures should continue through early 
next week before getting back to around normal by the middle of next week.  Meanwhile, the arctic 
chill across the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley should moderate by Saturday 
afternoon but a brief shot of arctic air could return to these areas on Monday behind a cold front. 
 New England will see the center of an arctic high pressure system passing through the region 
Sunday morning with below zero readings expected in the coldest valleys.  Meanwhile, a round of 
snow is forecast to move from west to east near the Canadian border of the northern Plains, 
reaching the upper Great Lakes on Saturday and into Sunday morning ahead of an Alberta clipper.  
Snowfall amounts are expected to be light although a few inches are possible near the Canadian 
border.

Near the southeastern U.S., deterministic model guidance continues to indicate the potential for a 
relatively compact low pressure system to form late this weekend into Monday.  Since yesterday, 
guidance has generally trended eastward with respect to the prime location of cyclogenesis to just 
off the coast of the southeastern U.S.  This has shifted the wintry weather potential farther east 
to near the Carolina coasts.  There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the speed and 
amplitude of the associated upper-level trough moving across the Deep South.  Therefore, no 
precipitation hazards have been depicted for this system in the time being.

Elsewhere, precipitation is expected to reach northwestern Washington state as well as near the 
Gulf Coast where amounts are forecast to be light to moderate.

For Alaska, an active northern Pacific pattern with troughing over the far western Aleutians and a 
longwave ridge over western Canada will continue to direct energetic low pressure systems toward 
the Panhandle to the south-central coast through much of the medium-range period.  Precipitation 
amounts are forecast to maximize along the Panhandle on Sunday followed by a downward trend through 
Tuesday.  Then, the next surge of moisture is expected to ramp up precipitation amounts by 
Wednesday along the Panhandle as well as further up the southern coastal region and nearby 
mountainous terrain of Alaska.  Gusty southeasterly winds are also forecast to accompany the heavy 
precipitation on Sunday and next Wednesday.

Kong