US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EST Thu Feb 03 2022
 
Valid Sunday February 06 2022 - Thursday February 10 2022
 
Hazards:
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Tennessee Valley.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the southern Rockies and southern Plains, as 
well as from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Feb 6-Feb 7.
- Much below normal temperatures across the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley and interior Northeast, 
Sun, Feb 6.
- Heavy precipitation across the Alaska Panhandle into the southern coastal sections of Alaska, 
Sun-Thu, Feb 6-Feb 10.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium-range period will begin on Sunday, February 6th with a large dome of arctic air 
extending across the southern Plains to New England.  The arctic air will be gradually modified 
with time.  However, much of the central to southern Plains will see temperatures dropping back 
into the teens and 20s Sunday morning where record low temperatures will be challenged at a few 
locations.  Temperatures will remain colder than normal through early next week before getting back 
to around normal by the middle of next week.  Meanwhile, the arctic chill across the Ohio Valley 
should moderate closer to normal by Sunday but a brief shot of arctic air is forecast to return on 
Monday behind a cold front, where single digit low temperatures are forecast for Tuesday morning 
before milder air from the west gradually filters in through midweek.  New England will see the 
center of an arctic high pressure system passing through the region Sunday morning with below zero 
readings expected in the coldest valleys.  Meanwhile, a round of snow should be departing the upper 
Great Lakes on Sunday with the passage of an Alberta clipper.

Near the southeastern U.S., model guidance continues to indicate the potential for a relatively 
compact low pressure system to form late this weekend into Monday off the coast of the southeastern 
U.S.  Recent model runs are indicating the possibility for the low to develop further and track 
northeastward just off the North Carolina coast on Tuesday.  This latest model trend has introduced 
wintry weather potential farther north into the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday as heavier rain potentially 
brushes the North Carolina coast.  However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty associated 
with this system.  Therefore, no precipitation hazards have been depicted near the East Coast for 
the time being.

Elsewhere, models have come into better agreement with bringing moderate to heavy rain into 
southern Texas late Monday into Tuesday as a positively-tilted upper trough dips into the southern 
Plains.  Meanwhile, precipitation is expected to reach northwestern Washington state as well as 
near the Gulf Coast where amounts are forecast to be light to moderate.

For Alaska, an active northern Pacific pattern with troughing over the far western Aleutians and a 
longwave ridge anchored over western Canada will continue to direct energetic low pressure systems 
toward the Panhandle and the southern coast through much of the medium-range period.  Precipitation 
amounts are forecast to maximize along the Panhandle on Sunday followed by a downward trend through 
Tuesday. Then, another surge of moisture from the next Pacific system is expected to ramp up 
precipitation amounts by Wednesday from the northern Panhandle up through the southern coastal 
region and nearby mountainous terrain of Alaska.  Gusty southeasterly winds are also forecast to 
accompany the heavy precipitation on Sunday and next Wednesday.

Kong