US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EST Wed Feb 09 2022
 
Valid Saturday February 12 2022 - Wednesday February 16 2022
 
Hazards:
- Heavy snow possible across portions of southeastern New England, Sun, Feb 13.
- Heavy snow possible across portions of the northern Cascades and northern Rockies, Mon, Feb 14.
- Heavy rain possible across portions of the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley, and 
into the Midwest, Wed, Feb 16.
- Much below normal temperatures across the upper Midwest into the upper Great Lakes, Sat, Feb 12.
- Much below normal temperatures across the lower Great Lakes and northern New England, Sun-Tue, 
Feb 13-Feb 15.
- High winds across the western portion of the Aleutians, Sun-Mon, Feb 13-Feb 14.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of western Alaska, Sat-Tue, Feb 12-Feb 15.
- Heavy precipitation across southeastern Alaska into the Panhandle, Wed, Feb 16.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium-range period will begin on Saturday, February 12th with a fairly amplified upper trough 
dipping into the northern tier states as a fairly strong surge of arctic air drops temperatures to 
more than 20 degrees below normal over the upper Midwest into upper Great Lakes Saturday morning.  
This upper trough and associated arctic surge have trended stronger since a couple of days ago, and 
much below normal temperatures are now anticipated early next week across the lower Great Lakes and 
northern New England.  This colder trend has result in a greater chance for the upper trough to 
interact with the southern stream flow coming up from the Gulf of Mexico toward/off the 
southeastern U.S.  This interaction has also resulted in an increasing potential for wintry 
precipitation to occur late this weekend in the northeastern U.S.  Southeastern New England appears 
to be the likeliest area where accumulating snow could fall.  Therefore, a heavy snow area has been 
introduced for portions of southeastern New England for Sunday, Feb. 13.

Over the Pacific Northwest, the next Pacific system is forecast to bring a chance of heavy snow 
across portions of the northern Cascades and into the northern Rockies next Monday.  The upper 
trough associated with this system appears quite vigorous.  It is forecast to push further 
southeastward through the western U.S. with a chance of heavy wintry precipitation moving into the 
central Rockies Tuesday to Wednesday.  As the upper trough exits into the Plains, the chance of 
heavy rain is forecast to increase across portions of the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi 
Valley and into the Midwest later on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, portions of California especially near the central and southern coastal sections are 
expected to experience record high temperatures into the weekend as a deep-layer warm high pressure 
system builds in from the north with a tendency for offshore flow to develop.  Parts of southern 
California are under an excessive heat watch with high temperatures expected to reach the upper 80s 
Saturday afternoon.

For Alaska, the recent spell of heavy precipitation across the Southeast and Panhandle is expected 
to taper off on Saturday.  By early next week, models continue to indicate that a large scale 
cyclone will approach the Aleutians from the Pacific.  The latest model runs still limit the 
sustained winds across the Aleutians to under 50 knots Sunday to Monday.  However, gusts are 
forecast to reach hurricane force across western Aleutians.  Therefore, a high wind area has been 
introduced for the western Aleutians.  Farther north, a consistent period of below average 
temperatures in the short range is expected to continue into the medium range for parts of the 
western mainland coast due to a persistent area of high pressure.  By next Wednesday, models 
support an area of heavy precipitation to reach southeastern Alaska into the Panhandle later that 
day although confidence on the intensity and timing of the associated low pressure system is not 
high at this time.

Kong