US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 330 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022 Valid Sunday February 13 2022 - Thursday February 17 2022 Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Great Lakes, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Wed-Thu, Feb 16-Feb 17. - Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Thu, Feb 16-Feb 17. - Heavy snow across portions of northern Idaho, Mon, Feb 14. - Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast, Sun, Feb 13. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Sun-Mon, Feb 13-Feb 14. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Wed, Feb 16. - High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Sun-Mon, Feb 13-Feb 14. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Feb 13-Feb 15. Detailed Summary: The medium-range period will begin on Sunday, February 13th with a surge of arctic air overspreading the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then toward New England. Temperatures are forecast to drop to more than 20 degrees below normal across the interior section of the Northeast by Monday morning. In addition, recent model solutions indicate a colder trend near the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday morning where temperatures could be 20 degrees colder than normal. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is forecast to develop just off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday morning while moving further offshore. However, an area of snow is expected to brush the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England Sunday morning as the low pressure system exits the East Coast. It appears that southeastern New England will be the likeliest area where accumulating snow could fall. Therefore, a heavy snow area has been highlighted for extreme southeastern New England. Over the Pacific Northwest, the next Pacific system is forecast to bring a period of snow across the Cascades and into the northern Rockies next Monday into Tuesday behind a cold front, with a chance of heavier snow across northern Idaho. The upper trough associated with this system appears quite vigorous. It is forecast to push further southeastward through the western U.S. with a period of wintry precipitation expected to move into the central Rockies Tuesday to Wednesday. As the upper trough exits into the Plains, the chance of heavy rain is forecast to blossom across portions of the southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest later on Wednesday ahead of what appears to be a rather dynamic cold front. The threat of heavy rain will likely expand further east on Thursday into the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley and through the Ohio Valley, together with the possibility of strong thunderstorms across the Deep South. In addition, arctic air settling into the northern Plains will begin to interact with a low pressure system developing over the central Plains to spread a swath of wintry weather main north of the track of the low center. The current estimate is for the wintry precipitation to spread from portions of the central Plains across the Midwest and the lower Great Lakes toward northern New England next Wednesday into Thursday. Meanwhile, one more day of record high temperatures is forecast for portions of California as a deep-layer warm high pressure system centered over the Rockies continues to promote dry and gusty offshore winds. By Tuesday, a drastic cool down is anticipated as the cold air dipping through the Pacific Northwest arrives behind a sharp cold front. For Alaska, models continue to indicate that a large scale cyclone will approach the Aleutians from the Pacific. The latest model runs still limit the sustained winds across the Aleutians to under 50 knots Sunday to Monday with less robust gusts but they are still forecast to reach just under hurricane force across western Aleutians. Therefore, a high wind area is highlighted for the western Aleutians. Farther north, a consistent period of below average temperatures in the short range is expected to continue into the medium range for parts of the western mainland coast due to a persistent area of high pressure. By next Wednesday, models support an area of heavy precipitation to reach southeastern Alaska into the Panhandle later that day into early Thursday although confidence on the intensity and timing of the associated low pressure system is not high at this time. Kong