US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EST Thu Feb 10 2022
 
Valid Sunday February 13 2022 - Thursday February 17 2022
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation from portions of the central Plains, the Midwest and through the lower Great 
Lakes, Wed-Thu, Feb 16-Feb 17.
- Heavy rain across portions of the central/southern Plains across the lower and mid-Mississippi 
Valley, the Ohio Valley and into the lower Great Lakes and the southern Appalachians, Wed-Thu, Feb 
16-Feb 17.
- Heavy snow possible across portions of northern Idaho, Mon, Feb 14.
- Heavy snow possible across extreme southeastern New England, Sun, Feb 13.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of interior New England and the lower Great Lakes, 
Sun-Mon, Feb 13-Feb 14.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Wed-Thu, Feb 16-Feb 17.
- High winds across western Aleutians, Sun-Mon, Feb 13-Feb 14.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of western Alaska, Sun-Tue, Feb 13-Feb 15.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium-range period will begin on Sunday, February 13th with a surge of arctic air 
overspreading the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and then toward New England.  Temperatures are forecast 
to drop to more than 20 degrees below normal across the interior section of the Northeast by Monday 
morning.  In addition, recent model runs indicate a colder trend near the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday 
morning where temperatures could be 20 degrees colder than normal.  Meanwhile, a low pressure 
system is forecast to develop just off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday morning while moving further 
offshore.  However, an area of snow is expected to brush the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England 
Sunday morning as the low pressure system exits the East Coast.  It appears that southeastern New 
England will be the likeliest area where accumulating snow could fall.  Therefore, a heavy snow 
area has been highlighted for extreme southeastern New England.

Over the Pacific Northwest, the next Pacific system is forecast to bring a period of snow across 
the Cascades and into the northern Rockies next Monday into Tuesday behind a cold front, with a 
chance of heavier snow across northern Idaho.  The upper trough associated with this system appears 
quite vigorous while pushing southeastward through the western U.S. with a period of wintry 
precipitation expected to move into the central Rockies Tuesday to Wednesday.  As the upper trough 
exits into the Plains, the chance of heavy rain is forecast to blossom across portions of the 
southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest later on Wednesday ahead of what 
appears to be a rather dynamic cold front.  The threat of heavy rain will likely expand further 
east on Thursday into the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley and through the Ohio Valley, together 
with the possibility of strong thunderstorms across the Deep South.  In addition, arctic air 
settling into the northern Plains will begin to interact with a low pressure system developing over 
the central Plains with a swath of wintry weather mainly north of the track of the low center.  The 
current estimate is for the wintry precipitation to spread from portions of the central Plains 
through the Midwest and the lower Great Lakes toward northern New England next Wednesday into 
Thursday. 

Meanwhile, one more day of record high temperatures is forecast for portions of California on 
Sunday as a deep-layer warm high pressure system centered over the Rockies continues to promote dry 
and gusty offshore winds.  By Tuesday, a drastic cool down is anticipated as the cold air dipping 
through the Pacific Northwest arrives behind a sharp cold front.

For Alaska, models continue to indicate that a large scale cyclone will approach the Aleutians from 
the Pacific.  The latest model runs still limit the sustained winds across the Aleutians to under 
50 knots Sunday to Monday with less robust gusts.  But the wind gusts are still forecast to reach 
just under hurricane force across western Aleutians.  Therefore, a high wind area is highlighted 
for the western Aleutians.  Farther north, a consistent period of below average temperatures in the 
short range is expected to continue into the medium range for parts of the western mainland due to 
a persistent area of high pressure.  By next Wednesday, models support an area of heavy 
precipitation to reach southeastern Alaska into the Panhandle later that day and continue into 
early Thursday with the passage of a low pressure wave.

Kong