US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022
 
Valid Monday February 14 2022 - Friday February 18 2022
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the southern Plains through the Midwest and the lower 
Great Lakes into far interior New England, Wed-Thu, Feb 16-Feb 17.
- Heavy rain across portions of the southern Plains, much of the Deep South, the Northeast, through 
the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley, as well as the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and into the 
southern Appalachians, Wed-Thu, Feb 16-Feb 17.
- Severe weather across portions of the southern Plains through the lower and mid-Mississippi 
Valley toward the Ohio Valley, Wed-Thu, Feb 16-Feb 17.
- High winds across portions of the central/southern High Plains toward the upper Midwest, Thu, Feb 
17.
- High winds across portions of the New England coastal areas, Fri, Feb 18.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the interior Northeast and the lower Great 
Lakes, Mon, Feb 14.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Wed-Fri, Feb 16-Feb 18.
- High winds across portions of the western Aleutians, Mon, Feb 14.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland western Alaska, Mon-Tue, Feb 14-Feb 15.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium-range period will begin on Monday, February 14th with a rather vigorous upper trough 
moving southeastward into the Pacific Northwest.  This system is forecast to bring a period of 
moderate snowfall across the Cascades, the northern Rockies and into the northern Great Basin later 
on Monday into Tuesday behind a cold front, with a chance of heavier snow across northern Idaho.  
The cold front and the associated low pressure system are forecast to plunge into the southwestern 
U.S. by later on Tuesday, ending the spell of record warmth across California, and will be followed 
by a period of snow across the higher terrain such as the Sierra Nevada.  By Tuesday night into 
Wednesday, the low pressure system will be ready to exit the Southwest toward the southern Plains 
when a fresh dome of arctic air surges down into the northern Plains.  This setup will bring a 
period of wintry precipitation on Wednesday across the central Rockies where moderate to locally 
heavy snow is possible over the higher elevation.  As the upper trough exits into the Plains later 
on Wednesday, the chance of heavy rain is forecast to blossom over portions of the southern Plains, 
mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest ahead of what appears to be a rather dynamic cold 
front.  The threat of heavy rain will likely expand further east on Thursday into the lower to 
mid-Mississippi Valley and through the Ohio Valley, together with the possibility of strong to 
severe thunderstorms across the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley.  In addition, arctic air 
settling into the northern Plains will begin to interact with an intensifying low pressure system 
moving through the central Plains with a swath of wintry weather mainly north of the track of the 
storm center.  The current estimate is for the wintry precipitation to spread from portions of the 
central Plains through the Midwest and the lower Great Lakes toward northern New York next 
Wednesday into Thursday.  Winds can be rather strong and gusty to the north and west of the storm 
track as well.  By next Friday, the low pressure system is forecast to track across the 
northeastern U.S. with high winds possible along coastal New England.  Heavy rain may also impact 
the coastal sections but uncertainty is a bit too large to be specific for the time being.

Over the northeastern U.S., the medium-range period will begin with a surge of arctic air engulfing 
the region as a low pressure system moves further away from the East Coast.  Temperatures will be 
much below normal on Monday before moderating slightly on Tuesday.  Thereafter, much above normal 
temperatures from the Plains will expand and engulf the entire eastern U.S. toward the end of next 
week ahead of the intensifying low pressure system moving through the central U.S.

For Alaska, the center of a deep cyclone will likely move across the western Aleutians as the 
medium-range period begins on Monday.  The latest model runs still limit the sustained winds across 
the Aleutians to under 50 knots.  However, wind gusts are forecast to reach just under hurricane 
force across western Aleutians where a high wind area is highlighted.  Farther north, a consistent 
period of below average temperatures in the short range is expected to continue into the medium 
range for parts of the western mainland in connection to a persistent area of high pressure.  By 
later next Wednesday, models continue to agree that an area of heavy precipitation will reach 
southeastern Alaska into the Panhandle ahead of a low pressure wave.  The precipitation is forecast 
to linger into Thursday before a lull possibly arrives Thursday night.  By Friday, latest model 
trend indicates a possible increase of moisture once again across the Panhandle late that day as 
another low pressure wave approaches from the Gulf of Alaska.

Kong