US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022
 
Valid Thursday October 13 2022 - Monday October 17 2022
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across much of the Northeast, Thu-Fri, Oct 13-Oct 14.
- Heavy rain across portions of the higher elevations of eastern Arizona to southwestern New 
Mexico, Mon, Oct 17.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of central Florida.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, 
and into the Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Oct 16-Oct 17.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of coastal and nearby high terrain of southern mainland 
Alaska into the Alaska Panhandle, Sat-Sun, Oct 15-Oct 16.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Thu, Oct 13.
 
Detailed Summary:

...CONUS...

The upper-level pattern appears quite amplified through the medium-range period across North 
America.  A  trough is forecast to amplify rather vigorously midweek as it digs southeastward 
across southern Canada, bringing with it a surge of colder air into the northern portion of the 
country to begin the medium-range period on Thursday.  Ahead of this amplifying trough, a surge of 
strong and deep southerly flow from the  Atlantic is forecast to bring heavy rain into much of New 
England Thursday into Friday in advance of a sharp cold front.  Behind this amplified trough and 
the sharp cold front, models generally indicate another reinforcing upper trough to amplify as it 
digs across southern Canada.  This pattern will likely bring a colder surge of Canadian air once 
again into the northern portion of the country this weekend and into next Monday.  Morning low 
temperatures are forecast to drop below freezing across the northern Plains on Sunday and then into 
much of the upper Midwest by Monday.   Strong and deep southerly flow ahead of this digging trough 
will appear to bring another surge of Atlantic moisture toward New England.  Ensemble means appear 
to highlight interior New England as the most probable location of receiving enhanced 
precipitation.  Given the amplified upper pattern, heavy rain cannot be ruled out especially across 
the higher terrain of interior New England by early next week, which may change over the wet snow 
depending on the speed of colder air advancing east across the Great Lakes.

Across the Southwest, there is relatively good model agreement for an upper low to drift onshore 
from near/off southern California late week and into early next week.  Increasing moisture ahead of 
this upper low is forecast to spread scattered areas of heavy rain into southwestern Texas by about 
Monday.  The wind-facing higher terrain from eastern Arizona to southwestern New Mexico appears to 
be the most probable locations of receiving heavy rainfall.  Southwestern Texas appears to be 
another area where heavy rain is probable given favorable dynamics suggested by current ensemble 
means.

...Alaska...

The medium-range period will likely begin with a heavy precipitation event winding down across the 
Alaska Panhandle on Thursday.  By the weekend, another surge of deep layer southerly flow ahead of 
a cyclone slowly moving along the Aleutians is forecast to bring another episode of heavy rain, 
this time farther north across the coastal sections and nearby high terrain of southern mainland 
Alaska into the Alaska Panhandle.  We are not expecting high winds of greater than 50 knots to 
impact the Aleutians at this time but will monitor the depth of the occluded cyclone in subsequent 
days.

Kong