MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0001
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1258 AM EDT WED APR 10 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHER MO..SOUTHERN/EASTERN IA..SW WI..NW IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 100458Z - 101058Z
 
SUMMARY:  FLASH FLOOD THREAT INCREASING FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI
INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN IOWA..NW ILLINOIS..SW WI THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION:  AT 0400 UTC...RADAR INDICATED AN EXPANDING NE/SW BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA..WHERE IT BECOMES MORE EAST-WEST ORIENTED INTO NRN
ILLIOS.  THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS DEVELOPING ALONG AN AXIS
OF HIGHER PWS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.4 INCHES OVER ERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MO.  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN IOWA INTO PARTS OF NW ILLINOIS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WI.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ORGANIZED
HEAVIER RAIN BAND FARTHER NORTH OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD INCREASING THREAT OF POTENTIAL MERGER WITH
ACTIVITY WORKING NORTHWARD OVER MO. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
STRONG TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF CELLS NORTH OF THE E/W
FRONT AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SE FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED HIER PWS OVER
THE BOUNDARY.  CURRENT THINKING IS SOME LOCAL SHORT TERM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. 

SULLIVAN


ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41039138 40279278 39969377 40759425 41909376 42989191
            43128943 42478930 41039138