MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0003
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
116 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110516Z - 111116Z
 
SUMMARY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

DISCUSSION...AT 05Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF ILLINOIS INTO EXTREME WESTERN INDIANA,
MOVING AT 25-30 KNOTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  DESPITE ITS FAST
MOVEMENT, THE LINE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA WHICH HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY, WHICH HAS
DRAMATICALLY LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO AROUND 0.75 INCH IN
THREE HOUR'S TIME WITHIN THE SCALLOPED AREA DEPICTED.  HIGH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.50
INCHES OR MORE AT THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AT THE 850
HPA LEVEL, SHOULD CONTINUE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OF THIS LINE,
WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A BROAD BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL, AS IT
MOVES ALONG AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT.


ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37358900 37478957 38039019 38989050 39938983 40358901
            40588810 40518724 39448722 38338793 37358900