MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0004
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 AM EDT THU APR 11 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 110609Z - 111209Z
 
SUMMARY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.

DISCUSSION...AT 06Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA WHICH WAS
BEGINNING TO STALL AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING TEXAS FROM
MEXICO, WHICH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE SHORTLY. 
RADAR ESTIMATES ARE APPROACHING THREE INCHES OVER THE PAST COUPLE
HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE AREA. HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 INCHES WITHIN A 40-50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET AT THE 850 HPA LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
REGION UNTIL 12Z, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY
OF THIS BAND.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS
AREA BY SUNRISE.


ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37358900 37478957 38039019 38989050 39938983 40358901
            40588810 40518724 39448722 38338793 37358900