MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0009
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1220 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NW MO...FAR SERN NE...FAR SRN IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 171618Z - 172118Z
 
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR
SOUTHERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES.

CONVECTION SHOULD BE INCREASING OVER EASTERN KS AND NORTHWEST MO
AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES PROVIDES
INCREASING DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  AT THE SAME TIME...850 MB WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL DRAW INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTH OF
A WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE MOISTURE
FLUX ANAMOLIES AND STRONG FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ALOFT SUGGESTS
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE TRAINING OF CELLS
OCCURS.   

THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NE INTO
FAR SOUTHERN IA WILL ALSO BE INCREASING AS ADDITIONAL CELLS MOVE
OVER AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER
THIS MORNING.

BANN


ATTN...WFO...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...
OUN...

LAT...LON   39479683 40569621 41079514 41209411 41079263 40819207
            39939260 38269395 36529595 37169714 39479683 


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