MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0011
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...NRN IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 171946Z - 180146Z
 
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST AND CONTINUE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING FROM NERN MO...SERN IA INTO NRN IL.

SUMMARY...RECENT RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 IN / 3 HR HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF IOWA OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS WHICH HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE THREAT AREA. THIS AREA OF
RAIN IS OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG OVERRUNNING ACROSS A WARM
FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS. 

DISCUSSION...18Z 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING AROUND 1.5
IN / 3 HR AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS 850
MB FLOW AOA 40 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST....AS SEEN ON 18Z RAOB FROM
TOP AND SGF...CONTINUES TO OVERRUN COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SETUP WHICH SHOULD
LIKELY CAUSE RAINFALL TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...SUPPORTED BY
RECENT HRRR...SSEO MEAN AND RAP SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.

OTTO


ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   38599244 40349220 41069184 42139083 42528914 42578784
            42398706 41668690 40808786 40068933 38599244