MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0012
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
708 PM EDT WED APR 17 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO NWRN MO AND S-CNTRL IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 172308Z - 180508Z
 
SUMMARY...CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHILE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
TRAINING CELLS IS IN PLACE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI.

DISCUSSION...AT 22Z...A STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...ORIENTED
IN A SW-NE FASHION...WAS ANALYZED IN A LINE FROM NEAR CDS TO OKC
TO SZL. BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND GPS PW PLOTS SUGGESTED PWATS WERE
1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES...HIGHER TO THE SOUTH. THERE WAS A LACK OF
OBSERVATIONS TO CONFIRM HIGHER PWATS EXCEEDING 1.75 SUGGESTED BY
THE 21Z RAP. CLOUD LAYER MEAN FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KTS FROM THE SSW
AND 850 MB FLOW OF ROUGHLY SIMILAR MAGNITUDE AND DIRECTION IS
PROMOTING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TRAINING OF CELLS ACROSS THE
HIGHLIGHTED THREAT AREA. 

AT 22Z...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE KS/OK
BORDER AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE
BOUNDARY MAKES LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH 06Z. MEAN...DEEP
LAYERED FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT
TRAINING OF CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND
EVENTUALLY...WESTERN MISSOURI. 

RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...BUT AS HEIGHT
FALLS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. VERY FAVORABLE DIFLUENT WINDS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS ARE ALSO PRESENT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT VERTICAL
MOTION. RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED AND IS FORECAST
BY RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP AND HRRR WHICH WILL TEST FFG OF 1.5
IN/HR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

OTTO


ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38249624 39119558 39889533 40499519 40939440 41379312
            41689242 41789148 40299235 38629277 37739362 37089513
            37019614 37419653 38249624