MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0037
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1028 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTHEASTERN TX/SOUTHWESTERN LA... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 110223Z - 110523Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA
GIVEN THE REGION REMAINS UNDER RATHER LOW FFG VALUES TO GO WITH
UPSTREAM CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED BATCH AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED
MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY. THE OVERALL CHARACTER OF
THE CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED A WHOLE LOT IN THE PAST HOUR BUT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DROPPING HEAVY RAINFALL PER THE 12Z HIGH-RES
ARW/NMM ALONG WITH THE 12Z SPC-WRF. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS CLOSER
TO THE TX/LA COAST SUGGEST THE AIR MASS IS RATHER UNSTABLE GIVEN
MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG PER THE 01Z RAP. 
WHILE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A BIT MARGINAL...THE
DIMINISHED FFG VALUES RAISE CONCERNS OVER THE AFFECTED AREA.  

RUBIN-OSTER


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29479665 29859637 29949558 30099490 30199468 30459409
            30239302 29559251 29499318 29579411 29289532 28809588
            28899646 29479665