MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0068
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1049 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN IA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 261447Z - 261747Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME ADDITIONAL TRAINING OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IS EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN IA TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL IL AS OF 1440Z.  RAINFALL
RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES...WERE LIKELY FROM THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION.  12Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING OVER THIS AREA. 88D VAD WIND PROFILERS STILL DEPTICTED
ABOUT 25 TO 30 KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IA EXTENDING BACK
INTO KS.  BOTH THE RAP AND THE HRRR ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN AND THE RAINFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING.  

EVEN SO...SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION.

BANN


ATTN...WFO...ILX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   41199236 41559302 42059407 42539495 42819517 43329500
            43729348 43549262 42629129 40688918 39828871 39648903
            39978987 40759154 41199236