MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0074
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
829 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NE...FAR NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST
MO...WESTERN IA 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 280028Z - 280628Z
 
SUMMARY...ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL NOT STALL...HEAVY RAIN RATES WILL
PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO MEET FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED 2-3" OF RAIN EARLY MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...MODEL AND SATELLITE DERIVED DATA ARE CONVINCING IN
SHOWING A RECOVERED AIR MASS IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY MONDAY MCS
IN THIS REGION. MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WERE GENERATING IN SC
AND NW NE THIS EVENING...AND WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
INFLOW WELL INTO THE NIGHT. THOUGH DRYLINE STORMS HAD INITIATED
FARTHER SOUTH...THERE WAS A BROAD RESERVOIR OF UNTAPPED AND
UNSTABLE AIR OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN OK/KS TO FEED INTO THE NEAR-SFC
AND ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED NORTH OF THE 700 MB THERMAL
RIDGE...GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT ONGOING SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT PER SPC FORECASTS...BUT NUMBER OF CELL MERGERS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LEAD TO A FORWARD MOVING MCS ALONG KS/NE
BORDER. WITH CORFIDI VECTORS AND RIGHT MOVING BUNKERS MOTIONS EAST
AT 15-20 KT...HEAVY RAIN MAY NOT PERSIST TOO LONG AT A GIVEN
LOCATION...BUT THE MDT/HI INSTABILITY AND PW APPROACHING 1.5
INCHES WILL FAVOR QUICK 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS AND POSSIBLE
REDEVELOPMENT BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE.

FARTHER NORTH...EXPECT SOME LEFT MOVING SUPERCELLS AND GENERAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN WARM ADVECTION TO BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
RATES...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING ON A BROADER SCALE AS ACTIVITY IN
WESTERN NE ARRIVES AFTER 03Z AS SEEN IN A FEW HIRES MODELS.

BURKE


ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   40549926 39689746 39259511 39249380 39529299 40189258
            40719272 41659367 42399501 42699642 42769720 42669779
            42239842 41369933 40549926