MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0076
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1043 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO...EXTREME SOUTHEAST
IA...WEST-CENTRAL IL 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY 
 
VALID 290243Z - 290730Z
 
SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO CONTINUE WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY GIVEN WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED OVER THE N CNTRL PLAINS
INVOF THE LOWER MO VALLEY IS FOCUSING A DEEP POOL OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
3000 J/KG AND LOCALLY HIGHER. ALREADY SEEING VERY COLD TOPPED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS. THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS INDICATES PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES FROM NERN KS ENEWD
ACROSS NRN MO...SERN IA AND MUCH OF WRN IL...PROMOTING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES. MUCH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION IS BECOMING
SFC-BASED AND IS SLOWLY SETTLING SEWD INTO THE DEEPER INSTABILITY
AXIS. HOWEVER...THE DEEPER LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL ESSENTIALLY BE
PARALLEL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE...AND WITH THE MID
LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BACK SOME OVERNIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING CONVECTION IS QUITE HIGH. GIVEN RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2
INCHES/HR...AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL ESP BE THE CASE
GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

ORRISON


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40819331 41009209 41089098 41078891 40808816 40318810
            39888853 39568949 39369036 39199115 39069182 38859307
            38739433 38649586 38919647 39399661 40089573 40559422
            40819331