MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0078
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL...EXTREME NORTHWEST IN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 290747Z - 291000Z
 
SUMMARY...SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS A
SMALL-SCALE MCS IMPACTS AREAS ALREADY WITH SATURATED SOILS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT COLD-TOPPED MCS
MOVING OUT OF FAR SERN IA AND INTO WRN IL ATTM. OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...THIS MCS SHOULD TEND TO HOLD ITS INTENSITY GIVEN
MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG ADVECTING NEWD INTO ITS SWRN
FLANK AS AIDED BY A 40 TO 50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE CONVECTION
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 INCHES/HR AND SINCE
IT WILL BE TRAVELLING OVER AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLASH
FLOODING OR AT LEAST NEARLY SATURATED SOIL...THE THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL FLASH FOODING WILL EXIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPECT THE MCS TO BEGIN WEAKENING TOWARD SUNRISE AND THEN MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA.

ORRISON


ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41049111 41378978 41498880 41528774 41358710 40798711
            40538793 40368890 40298965 40219078 40229122 40629140
            41049111