MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0079
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED......NEBRASKA/NW KANSAS 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 291844Z - 300044Z
 
SUMMARY...HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH MID-EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAPID CELL DEVELOPMENT
IN VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH PLATTE TO
NEAR GOODLAND.  CELL MOTION HAS BEEN NORTHWARD AT 25 MPH WITH
INDICATIONS OF SOUTHWARD PROPOGATION.  ADDITIONAL LIFT AND FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND BY A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
OVER COLORADO.  EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
SOME AGREEMENT AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM HI-RES GUIDANCE FAVORS
MODERATE CHANCES OF 1-HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2.0
INCHES...WHICH IS EQUAL TO FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  THE VAD WIND
PROFILE AT GOODLAND SHOWS AN ELONGATED HODOGRAPH WHICH IS
FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING...WHILE THE STRONG TROUGH EXITING THE
ROCKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD ONLY DEEPEN ASCENT AND FOCUS MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.  SEVERAL OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN MAY
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA.

JAMES

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39540207 41130197 42850009 43109885 42339846 40579973
            38840017 38770155 39540207 


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