MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0081
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
843 PM EDT WED MAY 29 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED......SOUTH CENTRAL NE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWEST KS... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 300040Z - 300540Z
 
SUMMARY...HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST KS TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LINEAR BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING JUST EAST OF NORTH PLATTE NE
TO 30 NM EAST OF GOODLAND KS.  A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE BAND
EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE DRYLINE IN SOUTHWEST KS. 

THE BAND WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST.  LIFT AND FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY AN UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE COUPLET
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER COLORADO. THE 18Z NAM
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED 300 MB DIVERGENCE MAXIMA TRAVERSING THE
OUTLOOK AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...COMBINED WITH A 700 MB
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA. 

LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP IN THE AREA AS THE DODGE CITY 00Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING INDICATED 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 8 DEG C/KM. 
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE SFC-750 MB INDICATES CONTINUED NORTH
MOVEMENT OF CELLS IS EXPECTED. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 15-20 KT...INDICATING FORWARD PROPAGATION
INTO THE AXIS OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.  MID 60S DEWPOINTS FROM HAYS
SOUTH TO SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NORTH CENTRAL OK WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  

THE RAP MODEL AND 18Z CONUS NESTED NAM INDICATES 1-2 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE BAND STARTS TO MOVE EAST A
LITTLE FASTER.

PETERSEN


ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39740013 40269961 40559912 40599822 40319787 39669797
            39159835 38489902 37679995 37440082 37850120 38610072
            39740013