MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0082
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1227 AM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND EASTERN OK...FAR SOUTHEAST KS...FAR
SOUTHWEST MO...FAR WESTERN AR 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 300426Z - 300856Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH TRAINING
CELLS...ESPECIALLY WHERE EARLIER RAINS LOWERED GUIDANCE VALUES IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK.

DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WAS RELATIVELY HIGH IN
THIS REGION...THERE WERE AREAS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK...EVEN
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS RECEIVING MULTIPLE RAIN EVENTS
THIS EVENING. INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTIONS WERE QUICK TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...BUT CELL REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING WERE FAVORED NEAR
THE EDGE OF THE CAP...APPROXIMATED BY THE +9C TEMPERATURE CONTOUR
AT 700 MB. THIS HAD RESULTED IN ROBUST CONVECTION AND TRAINING IN
TWO CLUSTERS...SC OK AND WNW OK AT 04Z. THE NORTHERN CLUSTER WILL
MOVE BACK OVER AREAS WHICH ALREADY RECEIVED 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. 

SOME SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT TOWARD OKC IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
LARGER SCALE MID LEVEL ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD...
AND THE CAP IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EASTWARD...PROVIDING A
RELATIVELY SHARP BACK EDGE TO THE ACTIVITY.

MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES DECREASE TOWARD WESTERN AR/SOUTHWEST
MO/SOUTHEAST KS...BUT THE SYNOPTIC LIFT MOVING INTO THIS AREA MAY
COMPENSATE...AND WORK WITH MID/UPPER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE DEEP
UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE WITHIN AN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING ENVIRONMENT...PW 1.50-1.75 INCHES. AGAIN...THE FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE S TO SW FLANK OF STORM CLUSTERS
WHERE COLD POOLS WILL INTERCEPT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT UPWIND.

BURKE


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   37329613 37379483 36859382 35769358 34319442 33989564
            33909670 33999712 34309721 34769730 35169765 35179830
            35319873 36079862 36819785 37329613