MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0083
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
450 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2013
 
AREAS AFFECTED......EASTERN OKLAHOME INTO NORTHWEST AR AND
SOUTHWEST MO... 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 302050Z - 310250Z
 
SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST AR AND
SOUTHWEST MO THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WHICH OCCASIONALLY FORMS INT TRAINING BANDS/CLUSTERS.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WHERE A BAND OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST OK PROPAGATES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE REST OF EASTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR.  

THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A MOIST AXIS WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS EASTERN OK.  ADDITIONALLY THE
MOISTURE IS DEEP WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES OF 1.5-1.75
INCHES.  

THE RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE
BAND/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...WITH COFFEYVILLE KS (JUST NORTH OF THE
OK BORDER) REPORTING 2 INCHES OF RAIN INT HE 2 HOURS ENDING AT
20Z. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE COMBINES WITH
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MOISTURE TRANSPORT...HIGH PW
VALUES...AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEG C/KM FROM THE 18Z
OUN AND SGF SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THOSE SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT 30 DEGREES
CHANGE FROM THE SURFACE TO 750 MB SO FORWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD
CONTINUE.

THE MODELS AGREE ON SIMILAR POTENTIAL WITH THE NCEP WRF NMM AND
ARW SUGGESTING HEAVIER RAIN WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN AR
TONIGHT.


PETERSEN 


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36319610 36649563 37389439 38149276 38079194 37309176
            36359200 35269249 34409379 34189469 34459556 35109613
            35779641 36319610